Odds On Pops and Other Effects on Market Share

[Richard prior]

Certainly should be a greater ratio of odds on pops winning Kev but it just goes to show, There's certainly a bit of value for punters with the Trots.

[Messenger]

Not a great day for Odds On pops at Cobram and Terang with only 4 out of 10 getting up. 4 of the beaten ones were long odds on (<$1.50)
At Cobram 2 complete outsiders of the field got up.
In a field of six Paul Land got up in race 4 at $36.20
In a field of twelve Mark Attack got up in the last at $62.70
Our own NJC did not have a lot of luck in the 2nd at Terang.

June Odds On stats for Vic stand at 72 winners to 63 losers (with 22 of the losers being long odds on)

[Richard prior]

Oops!! Wrong thread.

[Messenger]

Well my month of surveying Odds On pops in Vic finished with a bang at Stawell today.
3 out of 3 odds on faves got up this afternoon.
The grand totals for the month come in at
82 odds on Winners
75 odds on Losers (of which 26 were shorter than $1.55 on the tote)

It would seem to me that Odds On pops lose just about as often as they win so I would recommend looking for value in races where there is an odds on pop. Cheers

[Messenger]

I might have to do this survey again.
Four $1.50 or less Odds On faves successful at Charlton today

http://www.harness.org.au/meeting-re...H220115&ms=vic

[doncht]

Just a series of bad luck for me these past few days, I think I'll pass for now.

[waggamick]

My first post on The Forum and this topic really interests me.
I'm coming from a punting perspective and I find it hard to believe that Harness Racing has a viable future as a punting proposition when it dishes up so many odds on favourites at any given meeting.
I'm not talking SP here...just have a look at any Daily publication Form Guide and its not unusual to see five or six races on an eight race programme with pre-post Odds On favourites listed.
This is a major turn off to the casual punter and threatens the financial life blood of the industry.
I have contacted Harness Racing Authorities and Pundits alike without one reply.
A mate of mine who bets on anything..and I mean anything..Women's Tennis...had $100 on Adore Me in the Hunter Cup..."never again!" was his comment after she broke and was tailed off.
I've been following Harness Racing for 50 years and all I could do was sadly nod my head at his frustration.
I can see the arguments for STANDING STARTS...helps to handicap a relatively small pool of horses...and I can see the arguments against....more relatively event free starts and quicker times for breeding purposes.
I have suggested that Harness Racing authorities take a step into the 21st. Century and make a bold technologically based move in this the 50th anniversary of their last technological advance..the introduction of the Mobile Barrier at Harold Park on 21st May, 1965. I think 50 years is long enough.
The Singapore Turf Club (and Racing Victoria sometime this year) use the TRAKUS system to monitor horse positions and times in races.
http://www.turfclub.com.sg/Racing/An...akusChart.aspx
My suggestion is that Harness Racing employs such a system(or a GPS based system) to Handicap horses at all levels. By doing so it could introduce STAGGERED MOBILE STARTS.
Rather than just TWO LINES of starters you could have MULTIPLE LINES. This would give you the the ability to start horses off 60. 70, 80 metres under Mobile conditions. The best of both worlds.
The starter could monitor horse positions via a Lap Top.
The drivers could monitor the gaps via miniature apparatus attached to the horse's head gear.
There would be acceptable margins of error and of course discretionary handicapping would play a much bigger role at all levels.
Other data provided would assist in Stewards monitoring of a race.

[waggamick]

This has been a pet peeve of mine for a few years now.
The current Handicapping System is a disaster.
TAB Turnover is the life blood of all codes of racing.

Most punters get their information straight from the TAB screens or from newspapers.
A lot of my mates refuse to bet on Harness Racing in that they don't see backing Odds On pops or betting against them as viable propositions.
Throw in the prospect of getting trapped behind runners on tracks without Sprint Lanes or caught in the pack and you can see why they'll throw the odd $5 on a dog race instead.

I did a little research using the RESULTS sections of HARNESS.Org and THEDOGS.com and looked at the SP for TAB race meetings over the last few days.
There were 37 Harness Racing meetings in the last 7 days.
There were 27 Dog meetings over the last 4 days.
HARNESS RACING
37 meetings 289 races 126 Odds On Faves (44%) of which 72 won (57%)
DOG RACING
27 Meetings 265 races 71 Odds On Faves (27%) of which 43 won (61%)

18 of the 37 Harness racing meetings had more than half the program with Odds On faves.
4 of the 27 Dog meetings had more than half the program with Odds On Faves.

13 /37 harness meetings had 2 or less odds on pops at the meeting...35%.
15/27 dog meetings had 2 or less odds on pops at the meeting....56%.

My experience is that the Pre-Post odds quoted in the morning newspapers tend to be even more conservative than the eventual Staring Prices.
The perception out there is that there are too many poor value betting races at the Trots.

Any ideas on addressing the situation?

[aussiebreno]

This has been a pet peeve of mine for a few years now.
The current Handicapping System is a disaster.
TAB Turnover is the life blood of all codes of racing.

Most punters get their information straight from the TAB screens or from newspapers.
A lot of my mates refuse to bet on Harness Racing in that they don't see backing Odds On pops or betting against them as viable propositions.
Throw in the prospect of getting trapped behind runners on tracks without Sprint Lanes or caught in the pack and you can see why they'll throw the odd $5 on a dog race instead.

I did a little research using the RESULTS sections of HARNESS.Org and THEDOGS.com and looked at the SP for TAB race meetings over the last few days.
There were 37 Harness Racing meetings in the last 7 days.
There were 27 Dog meetings over the last 4 days.
HARNESS RACING
37 meetings 289 races 126 Odds On Faves (44%) of which 72 won (57%)
DOG RACING
27 Meetings 265 races 71 Odds On Faves (27%) of which 43 won (61%)

18 of the 37 Harness racing meetings had more than half the program with Odds On faves.
4 of the 27 Dog meetings had more than half the program with Odds On Faves.

13 /37 harness meetings had 2 or less odds on pops at the meeting...35%.
15/27 dog meetings had 2 or less odds on pops at the meeting....56%.

My experience is that the Pre-Post odds quoted in the morning newspapers tend to be even more conservative than the eventual Staring Prices.
The perception out there is that there are too many poor value betting races at the Trots.

Any ideas on addressing the situation?

Staggered mobile

[arlington]

Staggered mobile

Might have to go to Noel for this one, was there a proto type built to suit Moonee Valley? Might be down in the bowels of Bendigo. Not sure if it was fixed angled arms but, anyway, the outside horses were set back.