Odds On Pops and Other Effects on Market Share

[Messenger]

It was incredible to see Ample Power start $1.04 favorite in R3 at Kilmore
This was only his 3rd start and at his last start about 6mths ago he was defeated when $1.30
With questions surrounding his tractability those who were on him must have felt sick when he initially refused to score up
It was never in doubt they will tell you as he won by a street

http://www.harness.org.au/meeting-re...ic#KIC10081604

[Messenger]

Are heats part of our Odds On problem?
The Trotters don't usually have as many in the Red but for the Breeders Crown at Maryborough today all 6 heats had Odds On faves with 4 deep in the red

http://www.harness.org.au/meeting-re...H170816&ms=vic

[Messenger]

This morning's markets for the Crown finals have the favourite at the following odds

$1.35
$2.50
$1.75
$1.10
$1.50
$1.55
$1.70
$1.35
$2.60
$1.35

There is no way that turnover is going to justify the prizemoney on offer. Even without all the shorties it was not going to happen but of course there are all the entry fees but I wonder how close all the payments get to the payouts?
Mind you a showcase event can justify supplementation for the good of the industry but I wonder how many 'unconverted' will attend Melton today or view it in their homes
I have been residing in a bit of a media dead spot the last couple of weeks but it seems to me that Crown day is going need a lot more promotion to the general public if in a few decades time it is to become Harness's equivalent of the gallops Slipper, Derby or Cup day (although I am told the Hunter Cup is to be our cup)

[Messenger]

Three of the odds-on pops beaten at $1.50, $1.60, $1.60
Would/could never happen at the gallops? When I asked a pro gallops assessor he said we cannot be very good assessors/punters

[Messenger]

Well I suppose I was right about the turnover not justifying the prizemoney but I found a few surprises
I compared last Friday nights Melton meet with todays
I looked at the Vic TAB pools for each race esp. the 4 main ones - win, place, tri, first 4
There was very little difference in the totals for each race except for one race. Much bigger First 4 pools on Friday was what allowed them to match today's Crown turnover
So much for odds o look on - BY FAR THE BIGGEST TURNOVER RACE of the 18 races was the one with the shortest fav : Our Waikiki Beach's race today thanks to a much, much bigger Win pool of $52k which was double some of the other win pools
The other interesting point of difference was that today's Quaddie pool was a massive $262k compared to Friday's $66k

[arlington]

Well I suppose I was right about the turnover not justifying the prizemoney but I found a few surprises
I compared last Friday nights Melton meet with todays
I looked at the Vic TAB pools for each race esp. the 4 main ones - win, place, tri, first 4
There was very little difference in the totals for each race except for one race. Much bigger First 4 pools on Friday was what allowed them to match today's Crown turnover
So much for odds o look on - BY FAR THE BIGGEST TURNOVER RACE of the 18 races was the one with the shortest fav : Our Waikiki Beach's race today thanks to a much, much bigger Win pool of $52k which was double some of the other win pools
The other interesting point of difference was that today's Quaddie pool was a massive $262k compared to Friday's $66k

The Waikiki Beach win pool may have been bolstered by industry funding itself. A fair guess is the winner of the $10000.00 Breeders Crown TAB voucher plonked on the nose.
I guess, at least, it will be a tax deduction.

[Messenger]

The Waikiki Beach win pool may have been bolstered by industry funding itself. A fair guess is the winner of the $10000.00 Breeders Crown TAB voucher plonked on the nose.
I guess, at least, it will be a tax deduction.

Thanks Wayne, that would be it - mind you without that bet, the races Win pool was still more than $10k bigger than any other

[Messenger]

Once again I am thinking that long Odds On pops do not hurt turnover

Mildura tonight:

R1 C1 with 9 starters and a $3.00 fav the pools added up to $49k ish
R2 C0 with 8 starters and a $1.10 pop the pools added up to $62k ish
R3 C0 with 6 starters and a $2.50 fav the pools added up to $25k ish
R4 3YO with 7 starters and a $1.04 pop the pools added up to $50k ish
R5 C3 with 10 starters and a $3.20 fav the pools added up to $34k ish

[Amlin]

81 noms for Kilmore Sun. 63 of them between the C0 and C1 events.

[Toohard]

81 noms for Kilmore Sun. 63 of them between the C0 and C1 events.

Have you seen the field for the Caulfield Stakes on Saturday? $27,000 for 4th and they could only get a field of 3 ?