The New Ratings Based Handicapping System

[Dot]

Yes it is Rick, and changes that address the economic losses and welfare failings of the industry due to horses that don’t race at all or disappear from the racing pool after one win are long overdue.

I can’t believe on other social media there are people who would can this ratings system based on an irrational fear of the lengths some drivers may go to to to finish nearer the tail of the field to maximise the loss of ratings points. I’ll bet these same people are the ones that haven’t noticed over decades those drivers who have only ever been trying to run in the placings to avoid taking a penalty.........

[gutwagon]

I think the first win bonus should be paid out for a win in any race the TAB is betting on regardless of race prize money. This would also encourage owners of lower ability horses to stay in the game longer. With the current demand for as many races as possible I don't think punters care much about the ability of the horses they are betting on, they just want competitive racing, fields big enough for each way betting and fewer odds on favs.

[Dot]

Ballarat should be a great nights racing but has stimulated some discussion on our current handicapping system with Spankem fresh from 2 heat wins in the ID and fourth in the final being assessed an M3/C3 and eligible for that C3 race, and seeding for the derby heats as 5 of the top 6 in betting being drawn the same heat.

Think it shows we have room to improve our product

[Showgrounds]

Should be a great nights racing but has stimulated some discussion on our current handicapping system with Spankem fresh from 2 heat wins in the ID and fourth in the final being assessed an M3/C3 and eligible for that C3 race, and seeding for the derby heats as 5 of the top 6 in betting being drawn the same heat.

Think it shows we have room to improve our product

Alternatively, it shows how out of whack the handicapping system is in NZ that you can have a horse like Spankem, who has only won 6 lifetime races, as an open class horse (rating R91). Horses like him have to come to Australia just to get a chance of winning. He has paid the price for being a good 2 year old (4 wins, 6 placings from 10 starts and $186K). No wins from 5 starts at 3 and 2 wins this season.

I'm trying to keep an open mind about the proposed handicapping system based on ratings. You would have to ask an NZ'r for an honest opinion of how its working there. Lack of 4 year old racing does not help their horses. Elle Mac, for example, is a seriously good 4 year old mare but had only raced against her own sex as a 2 and 3 year old. She had to start her 4 year old season as a rating R95 - against males. Two wins later, she is a R104. Little wonder her next race start will be in Australia. Against mares and possibly many of her own age.

Spankem a special in the C3 at Ballarat based on that.

[Dot]

Well in the absence of a Kiwi, though one is welcome to come in and answer, I think it goes like this, Allstars don’t like the ratings system because many of their horses do progress too rapidly for their liking through it. Others do like it because the good horses progress through more rapidly leaving like to race like more often, and there are issues with lack of races for juveniles against other like juveniles after they’ve had a win or two.

But it’s not just the ratings system there that’s the problem, it’s the programming, the field sizes, prizemoney and declining horse population and favourable handicapping here that see their horses travel or sold overseas to race.

If the Allstars stable were in the US then the majority or all of their horses would race on the stakes and grand circuit so no problem with handicapping or horse numbers but here and in NZ their performances are an outlier on their and our handicapping systems which is hard to cater for.

Spankem is not quite as “poorly” performed as you suggest Trevor. 4 of his wins were at 2, he did win at 3, here in a heat of the Victoria Derby last year, and the Kaikoura cup as a 4yo before 2 heat wins and a 3rd and then 4th in final of the ID for lifetime summary of 25 8 4 9 total earnings of approx $330k. I believe he went into the ID as a C1, and because of the Kaikoura Cup an M1, the ID heat wins made him M3/C3.

Of course when the class system was set up you couldn’t be an M1/C1 or M3/C3. He may not have gone through his grades but the Kaikoura Cup win would have made him an M1/C6 ( from memory) on arrival in Aus for the ID, and the ID heat wins an M3/C8. If he was in a C8 or C8+ at Ballarat then fair enough that’s what his assessment (should) have been.

I don’t think a horse like Spankem has to come to Australia to get a chance at winning ( apart from having to take on his stablemates in NZ) but the Kiwi connections giggle at how easy we are making it for them under our class system as it stands now.

Ratings alone won’t fix the problem, but they have to be better then what the class system has become, programming has to come into it too, and most important is a big enough horse population from a variety of stables to make it work.

[teecee]

Alternatively, it shows how out of whack the handicapping system is in NZ that you can have a horse like Spankem, who has only won 6 lifetime races, as an open class horse (rating R91). Horses like him have to come to Australia just to get a chance of winning. He has paid the price for being a good 2 year old (4 wins, 6 placings from 10 starts and $186K). No wins from 5 starts at 3 and 2 wins this season.

I'm trying to keep an open mind about the proposed handicapping system based on ratings. You would have to ask an NZ'r for an honest opinion of how its working there. Lack of 4 year old racing does not help their horses. Elle Mac, for example, is a seriously good 4 year old mare but had only raced against her own sex as a 2 and 3 year old. She had to start her 4 year old season as a rating R95 - against males. Two wins later, she is a R104. Little wonder her next race start will be in Australia. Against mares and possibly many of her own age.

Spankem a special in the C3 at Ballarat based on that.

Just so you can see where the two horses mentioned above come to get ratings that they have included is their respective paths to such ratings. The ratings take account of age with young horses as well as ability. It is a little misleading to suggest good / above average good horses are penalised by the ratings as can be seen by the ratings allocations to these two examples. There is no such thing as an open class rating. When all hoses start with 50 ratings points then a horse like Spankem with 91 points is only the equivalent Class 5. Hardly Open class even taking into account max rating is 120. (10+ wins old class system)

Spankem
https://harness.hrnz.co.nz/gws/ws/r/...nzg-Gait&Arg=P

Elle Mac....
https://harness.hrnz.co.nz/gws/ws/r/...nzg-Gait&Arg=P

[Showgrounds]

Thanks for bringing us up to speed, Tony. Would I be right, though, is suggesting NZ's "fast class" ranks are seriously depleted?

Looking at a horse like Sicario, R94 rated and destined (due to programming or lack of horses) to fast class races. A pretty good horse who has won 11 of 24, but his best win has been the Flying Stakes. In Australia, he is assessed a C2, M0!

Here is a horse that has beaten Chase Auckland, Pats Delight and Sheriff, as well as a FFA (sitting parked outside Alta Orlando - AS A 3 YEAR-OLD!) assessed a C2 in Australia! I cannot work out which is right or which is wrong, the Aus or NZ handicapping system. Either way, it flawed.

[Dot]

It’s not as simple Trevor as one or the other is flawed. A quick look at the WA pacing cup field will tell you very quickly where a large number of the NZ fast class horses are. It’s not just the NZ ratings system that sees them in WA. It’s the difficulty other stables in NZ, have in matching the standard set by the All Stars horses to be competitive in NZ, plus a number of very wealthy owners in WA that are willing to part with six figure sums, and the first digit is often not a 1, which is far inexcess of what many horses can win in NZ, and it’s in a lump sum, to compete for high levels prizemoney in WA which is subsidised by the TBs.

But our class system is flawed and particularly so by the changes of more recent times that the Kiwis often become very loosely assessed on arrival in Australia, so much so that when Mark Purdon brought Picadilly Princess to WA for the mares feature races during the ID carnival she was actually too lightly assessed to be eligible. Now HWOE applies in WA. And of course there are a number of NZ fast class horses in the eastern states as well.

The NZ industry is underpinned by the sale of horses overseas, which hampers their ability to generate turnover, and our breeding industry is in decline as a significant portion of owners choose to buy going horses of known ability from NZ rather then partake in the purchase of yearlings which is somewhat more of a lottery.

It will take more then just handicapping reform to restore the balance that sees each state of in Australia breed sufficient of its own horses that creates the economic activity that ensures government support for the industry more so then just taxes on wagering does and for NZ to have a racing environment that encourages owners to race rather then sell horses.

[Messenger]

Great post Dot.

I noticed that WA Cup winner Rocknroll Lincoln had had 13 starts in NZ (11 as a 3yo and 2 as a 4yo for 4 wins and 5 placings) for $28,721 in prizemoney - I added up his next 13 starts in WA to find he had already won another $89,745 (7 wins and 3 placings)
He has now had 21 starts in Aus for $435,453

[Messenger]

Harness Racing Victoria (HRV) will conduct a series of consultation sessions across Victoria in relation to the proposed national ratings handicapping system.

All stakeholders are encouraged to attend one of the following sessions:

Tuesday February 12 at Shepparton (7pm)
Wednesday February 13 at Ballarat (7pm)
Thursday February 14 at Cranbourne (7pm)
Monday February 18 at Mildura (7pm)

Light refreshments will be provided.

https://www.thetrots.com.au/news/art...ns-to-be-held/