Melton Bell Position Stats

[Messenger]

For the first half of the season I kept some stats on Melton's Metro meetings
The stats are for the 20 meetings between September 6 and Feb 27 where there was at least one Metro race on the program but the stats are for the whole program with a sample of 194 races (even included the trotters Ash )

The stats recorded winners and placegetters Position At the Bell. I thought it could be an important adjunct to one's speed charts in that it would tell us where winners come from

Of course we already knew that the Lead is the place to be and that was confirmed with
41% of Bell Leaders being the winner and placing 71% of the time

Then there was a big gap to the Death (2 posn) and Sit horse (3 posn)
who both won 13% of the time
as far as placing goes the Sit horse placed over 53% of the time while the Death placed 39% of the time

That does not leave a lot for the other posns
The Bell 1x1 won less than 8% of the time but it cannot be argued that the 3 wide horse has done any better for the stats for a Wide horse OR a Wide horse with a Trail at the bell, in total, are only equal to that of the 1x1 ie <8% in total

But not moving until after the bell does not read any better
The running line 6&8 and the fence 5&7 all won about 2.5% of the time or 10% altogether
while the the 10-12-14 posn in the running line won < 6% altogether

The 1x1 still places one third of the time 33% but you might consider that a little disappointing too when you consider that he misses a place 67% and we are talking about 3 place positions!

3 Fence (5 posn) placed 27% of the time

I will save barrier stats for another day

[Messenger]

I am just adding these barrier stats now as I think they are what Bruce was referring to.
These are the Melton Pacers Barrier Stats for Metro Mob Races with a minimum of 8 starters for the 5mths between Sep and Feb this year - there were 86 races that met this criteria

Barrier (comment is bell posn)
1 - 6 wins - 5 as leader
2 - 14 wins - 6 as leader, 4 running line, 3 on pegs, 1 death
3 - 8 wins - 7 as leader
4 - 6 wins - 3 as leader, 2 on pegs, 1 death
5 - 10 wins - 6 as leader, 1 running line, 1 pegs, 1 death, 1 3W
6 - 10 wins - 6 as leader, 2 on pegs, I death, 1 3W
7 - 7wins - 1 as leader, 1 running line, 1 pegs, 1 death, 3 3W
8 - 4 wins - 3 on pegs, 1 death
9 - 6 wins - 1 as leader, 1 running line, 3 pegs, 1 death
10 - 7 wins - 4 running line, 3 death
11+ - 8 wins - 2 running line, 6 3W

The sample is not big but I wanted to use the criteria I set, thinking I may get a fairly even spread of runners and with no <8 starter races unfairly skewing things

It is interesting to see a fairly even spread but to note the fairly ordinary number from barrier 1, the predominance of leaders vs the lack of winners from the running line (except for barriers 2 and 10) and death

[Amlin]

Seeing you enjoy stats Kev I have whipped up some for Warragul as I was keen to see how things went on the first season of racing on the refurbished track which concluded on August 17.




Out of 61 mobile start events, 31 of them rated quicker than 2:00. A sub-2:00 rate is no longer a novelty on the newer surface.


POSITION OF WINNER AT BELL - ALL MS/SS

Position

Amount

Leader
I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I
Behind leader
I I I I I I
Outside leader
I I I I I I I I I I I
Three back pegs
I I I
One out one back
I I I I
One out two back
I I I I I I I I
One out three back
I I I
One out four back
I I I
Four back pegs
I
Five back pegs

Five back outside

Three wide
I I I
Four wide







WINNING POSITION ON BARRIER - ALL MS/SS

Position

Amount

Fr1
I I I I I I I I I I I I I
Fr2
I I I I I I I I I
Fr3
I I I I I I I I I I I
Fr4
I I I I I
Fr5
I I I I I I I
Fr6
I I I I
Fr7
I I I I
Sr1
I I I I
Sr2
I I I I
Sr3
I
Sr4
I I
10m
I I
20m
I I
30m
I I I

[Messenger]

Interesting stuff Kyle.
A little leader dominated but we might well find that is the case everywhere.
The great 1x1 is the real death sentence nowadays
There could not be too many complaints about the spr lane winning too many, I would be guessing that half of the spr lane wins may have got up w/o one anyway