The ASBP Report: How can they be serious? Bad news for harness owners

[mightymo]

Mightymo the numbers are from YOUR report and what YOU have said. Your report says 600 imports for 2.1 million. Someone lifted this to 717 imports for the year.
YOU said 6000 foals bred a year. My numbers are from YOU yourself. So you are only laughing at yourself.

Lets go over the 3 horses who trifected the Aust Oaks and what the info available was AT the time of our discussion..not months later.
Baby Bling: In her very next start after our discussion; where she was being judged on available form she started at 20/1 in a $30K race. People would have laughed if you said she is part of a great NSW crop. Jennas Highview. Beaten at Wagga in a 32 final quarter. That isn't the stuff of champions. Vertigal. Gets beaten by interstate rivals. A 'great' crop does not get beaten by interstate horses. So Jennas Highview and Vertigal still haven't showed they are part of a great crop of 3yo fillies. It is just your average plain jane crop. Nothing stands out from prior years. Which was the whole point of the discussion.

"Im sure this will get a response"...well yeah thats the point of a forum...

or perhaps you're just a very poor judge of form...

[aussiebreno]

Just because they still beat other horses doesn't make the NSW fillies superstars. Our C0s do better then what Jennas Highview did that day. Shit I could have carried you and all the rocks in your head and still beat Jennas Highview home.

Once and for all if you know all the numbers what are they?
How many imports each season: Break this into fillies/mares and colts/geldings.
How many mares serviced per year, how many foals born per year and how many horses each crop actually make it to the races?

You've already answered those; but then backflipped on those numbers. Your (and/or your commitees) answers were 600 (later found to be 717), and 6000 (later to be argued 12'000?).

[Midfrew]

Someone asked for the breakdown of NZ imports by sex and age. These figures are ALL NZ Exports 12 months to 31 July, not reimported, including about 60 to USA and one to Sweden. Out of curiosity the oldest three were mares aged 17, 18 and 21!

Weanling 3 male 3 female
Yearling 26 male 24 female
2YO 64 male 28 female
3YO 136 male 63 female
4YO 128 male 57 female
5YO 116 male 38 female
6YO 57 male 15 female
7YO 16 male 6 female
8YO 14 male 1 female
9YO+ 17 male 18 female
Total 577 253
830

JOHN MOONEY

[triplev123]

there are only a small amount of breeders that breed to sell.
[vvv] true. Roughly a fraction below 20% but through the sales only it is probably closer to 15%.

most of the horses in the apg sale are not really for sale, their breeder just puts them in the sale so they are ellidgable for the series and the big money.
[vvv] not true. Most = a majority and as even the most jaundiced of eyes viewing the sales results would notice, most get sold.

if a buyer wants to pay big money for the horse then they might sell it. Don't blame the breeder for this, it's the way the apg sale works, blame them.
[vvv] see above.

a large amount of good broodmares never raced or were not good enough to win a race.
[vvv] interested to see the exact figures to back up that statement if you have them at hand.

many good race mares don't make good broodmares.
[vvv] see above.

take a look at sushi sushi its dam was a good race horse but it took 7 very average foals and 4 missed ones to get the good one. Her owners deserve a medal.
[vvv] she was better than good. She was a superstar.
unfortunately she tore her cervix when foaling her 1st one and was ET only from that day onwards. Sushi is an example of the quality of racehorse that she was destined to leave time & again but through circumstances/bad luck was largely unable to do so. Her owner does deserve a medal, though he will not get one for his golfing prowess & especially so for his composure whilst putting.

you can't get good horses without breeders willing to throw money away chasing a dream.breeders need some help if you want the industry to thrive.
[vvv] agree with that to some extent.

vvv

[Midfrew]

Not sure if the Panel engaged an analyst to look at the actual facts behind the Australian breeding and racing industry. In 2008 the NZ Racing Board commissioned supply chain reports for both the thoroughbred and harness industries/sport. The harness report was not published widely (I'll try to get it up on the NZSBA website over the weekend www.harnessracing.co.nz). Folks may be interested in the key figures from the analysis:

In all cases the numbers are for the 11 year period 1995 to 2006.

Across that period fillies:
- 51% of foals
- 50% to 52% of the available NZ horse pool after yearling exports
- 48% to 49% of the horses registered
- 43% to 45% of individual starters
- 39% to 44% of the total number of starters in each year.
(The percentages are the lows and highs which generally increased moving towards 2006)

Within the available pool 37% of ALL horses were never registered with a trainer and of those:
- 57% were fillies; and
- of that 57%, a quarter were subsequently bred at stud.

Of the horses that were registered with a trainer 9.5% never trialled or raced and of these 56% were fillies. In this sample one third of them went to stud.

Assuming that fillies and colts are equally prone to injury, the conclusion must be that owners in NZ quit fillies early, most probably because of a perceived lack of opportunity. What are the facts:

- fillies with trainers and which race = 45%
- fillies make up 46% of trial fields
- fillies win 42% of trials
- fillies make up only 39% of the races won and 40% of the race placings

In NZ just over 50 percent of the horses raced have the breeder as an owner in some capacity.

Finally only 46% of the total available pool of horses raced in at least one race. For NZ thoroughbreds the figure is 50%.

Two conclusions from this study are:

1. the pool of racing horses can be expanded by more races for fillies and mares; they will then increase the number of times they race per season and race for longer, changing owner/breeder and trainer perceptions on this may be the biggest challenge if more races are carded ; and

2. a decline in the number of colts and geldings racing in NZ will have a greater impact in the short term than a decline in the number of fillies racing. In the absence of increasing opportunities for F&M in NZ this is a real risk given the number of exports.

John Mooney

[aussiebreno]

Cheers Midfrew - these figures are over and above the Breeding Panels numbers where they say an average of 600. So trend is its going up.

Sorry everyone for posting the same dribble yet again but I just can't get my head around how mightymo thinks this is a good idea.

Breeding panels number: 7800 mares serviced per year with about 1000 foals not making it to the world. Foals to starters = 49% meaning 51% of foals don't even face the starter.

So here; with 100% absolute concrete numbers (well I actually I will still gear them towards being generous to Breeders.)

577 x 4500 + 192 x 1350 = 2855700 in total credits given out a year. In truth the Breeding Panel doesn't even think the figure will be this high.
Of course breeders may wish to use more/less credits when breeding comes around but using averages; 2855700 / 7800 = $366.

So in ONE year of breeding breeders can use their $366 but then their mare has ZERO credits left and we are back at Square 1 regardless. Or they could apportion the $366 in credits out over, lets say, the 10 foals the mare has in her lifetime. So $36 in credits each year!

Yes, these sort of figures are going to make a BIG difference to the number of foals being bred per year. In fact we might even get one more foal being born per year. But then we have the slight problem of the import fee meaning our field numbers DECREASE.

Oh and yes, the world doesn't work in averages. Those mares who achieve above the average will get higher breeding credits. But oh wait they would have been bred from anyway because they are already above average. Those ones below average who don't get bred from at the moment will have even less credits. Then we factor in the postage and admin fees and shit we are running at a loss here.

Just admit its a ridiculous and terrible scheme mightmo.

Hey theres 35 pages of the report and I am only cranky at about 1/2 of one page. Take it as a win that I've seen your ways for 34.5 pages.

EDIT: Also it says 51% of foals don't make it to races. That means 51% of the funding is just flushed down the drain!!!



Cmon Mightymo; I've just realised now 21 pages into this thread that the panel and yourself are obviously pulling our legs. I congratulate you on that. Well played Sir. I doubt even VVV could have matched a stunt this big. You're a master Mightymo!

[gutwagon]

@aussiebreno What is it with 'Pass The Mustard' and you ? Did he kick you or something ? His average prize money to starters is $9491. Thats for an $800 service fee. Have a look at some so called better stallions who are not preforming- Elsu $7077. Real Desire $8720. Thats just to name a few. You have said you don't breed horses, what gives you the right to joke about the people who do ? Tell David Murphy what you think about that horse, I'm sure he would put your lights out quick smart. lol.

[aussiebreno]

Nah I just can't think of many other cheap stallions that are advertised; I'm using his fee as its one of the cheaper ones (I reckon I've seen $850 somewhere). I guess because he is advertised is why he sticks in my mind and I don't know any other ! Heck I couldn't have actually told you if he had 1000 foals for 1 winners or 100 foals for 90 winners and 80 of this in 2minutes I just see his name plastered everywhere for some reason. I'm not using his performance I'm using his fee as the talking point.

[eliteblood]

Many good race mares don't make good broodmares.Take a look at Sushi Sushi its dam was a good race horse but it took 7 very average foals and 4 missed ones to get the good one. Her owners deserve a medal.

I know the owners of Sabilize well and they were just too damned stubborn to give up on her. If medals get handed out for that then I agree, they deserve one.

[The Big Mile]

firstly i think everyone has started to lose the plot here a bit, especially rooster;- the big mile clearly imports horses from nz, so good on him - everyone is already trying to force more fees down his throat so no need to jump on him anymore on here

Thanks Lance. Wont bother responding to Roosters or that bloke (justdoit I think his name was). Makes you shake your head with some of the stuff people come up with

Right for he record:

I buy going horses from NZ
I buy going horses from Australia
I buy yearlings
I breed and have expanded my broodmare band (including 2 whom are racing but I will breed with) 4 fold in the last 12 months
I wasn't born into harness racing and got hooked
I love the horses
I want to see the industry prosper as much as anyone else

My beef is quite clear with the import fee:

It is inequitable
It provides a barrier to entry for ownership
It dilutes the ability to generate returns
It taxes one part of the industry to fund another

...and the list goes on.

If I did not love nor care for the industry I would say it would be pretty unlikely that I would spend the time I have on here looking at the pros and cons of what has been proposed.

Remember - I breed and I will be explanding my breeding operation BUT I know what I am getting myself into. I accept that if my breeding will not be successful then that is my fault, not anyone elses. I do not expect hand outs and while it would be lovely to reduce costs, as generally I will breed to race then if it goes pear-shaped, that is my fault, no one elses. I do not expect other owners to subsidise my ownership punt - because thats exactly what 79% of breeders whom breed to race are - OWNERS!