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Thread: Industry Indicators - Good, Bad & Ugly

  1. #1
    Senior Member Colt alphastud will become famous soon enough
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    Industry Indicators - Good, Bad & Ugly

    FOALS - SALES RESULTS - PARTICIPATION - % NEW OWNERS - % X OWNERS - REGISTRATIONS - TRAINERS v WINS - BETTING - FIELD SIZES - EXTENDED NOMS.

    Only the authorities have full access to statistics that tells more about where our industry is and how it's trending. However, information such as sales results provide good insight.

    Recently,

    APG's mixed sale flopped. 61 of the 84 lots were passed in. (72%)

    Shepparton's mixed sale was poor. 30 of the 71 lots were passed in. (42%)

    APG is the best standardbred sales marketing company in Australia and has an excellent record. Either vendors were suddenly unrealistic in their reserves or the market went to sleep.

    Shepparton HRC are old style marketers however jagged a better 42% pass in rate. Looking closer however shows some sick results for vendors.
    E.g.
    x - Henin Hardenne NZ in foal to Captaintreacherous. The service fee alone is $11,500. This well bred ITP mare is a half sister to Stunnin Cullen - sold for $7,750.
    x - Rhodium Castle, winner of $89k, dam of Micrometeor (4 wins from 8 starts) and closely related to Jilliby Jitterbug - sold for $1,000.

    Doesn't anyone see a problem?
    How are we going to fix it?
    How do we know that our solution (if any) is fixing it?
    Know what the flow-on effect from down trending sales prices is?


    http://www.ardex.com.au/apgonlineauc...ults&saleid=42
    http://www.sheppartonhrc.com.au/news.php?id=1160

  2. #2
    Junior Member Weanling halfyourluck will become famous soon enough
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    Rhodium Castle probably a bad example, she came with a vet report that was not too flash and effectively meant embryo transfer was most likely required going forward. Not many buyers at mixed sales interested in ET I would imagine. A great pity because Micrometeor looks a very nice horse and doing a great job at present.

  3. #3
    Super Moderator Stallion Messenger will become famous soon enough Messenger's Avatar
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    For the umpteenth time I am going to bang on about us needing to create our own 'Melbourne Cup'.
    You have to be a follower before you consider ownership.

    Ps If you were an Age reader or simply a TV news follower - you would not know harness exists
    The Thin Green Line - Supporting the Rangers who protect the world's endangered animals against poachers

  4. #4
    Senior Member Horse Of The Year Dot will become famous soon enough
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    Interest in yearling sales is probably a better indicator Richard, mixed stock sales are often the equivalent of trash and treasure sales, with a variety of stock and explanations for them to be there. For the most part it is buyer beware but there are bargains for the astute to be had.

    Kev Victoria has its "Melbourne Cup" and it's Cox Plate of harness racing. There called the Hunter Cup and Victoria Cup, and rather then hold fast with their traditions as the TB industry has done they've been kicked around from pillar to post. The Hunter Cup is no longer a standing start handicap which equated with the Melbourne Cup, not necessarily the best horses in it, but all horses handicapped and run over a journey in an effort to even out the field, and the Victoria Cup a free for all that was intended for the very best horses as the Cox Plate is for TBs.

    Instead the focus has gone into an ID which has always been a "roving" event, and as such I'm not sure could have the same benefits for the industry in Victoria as an increased focus on the states two premier events. There will be plenty disagree but perhaps the time was right after the WA IDs to lay that event to rest, at least for a time, and invest in restoring the "middle tier" that produces the horses that compete in our sport. If we do intice them through the door how do we intend to keep them in our house when all it appears we will have to offer is the crumbs of restricted class racing.

    Whilst economists disagree over the success of trickle down economics on a national scale, after a lifetime in equestrian pursuits ( but not depending on them for a living) trickle down economics works in the equestrian sphere. Investment in horses and associated equipment by the more wealthy does trickle down to horses and equipment being available to the less well off at reduced prices. Funding from the grassroots alone up does not, yet that is what it appears HRV have become focussed on.

    The focus needs to be in the broadest band of participants who can afford to and be incentivised by the possibility of reward, not handouts, to continue to invest in the industry regardless of where their income is derived. No disrespect intended to the "battlers" at the lowest rungs of the sport and their contribution to filling fields and creating turnover is not just welcomed but essential. But raising stakes and increasing races at this level is short sighted and ineffective, presumably no one realistically expects this tier of participant, regarded as "battlers or grassroots" to make major investments in the breeding of horses to fill our commitment to the provision of racing product in the future do they?

    Likewise a high level of investment in races with elite levels of prizemoney also stifles investment across a broad section of the industry. It's simply more efficient rather then breed and invest in producing a number of horses looking for "the one" for the wealthiest owners to purchase at a very high price a proven going horse that they know already can race at the elite level.
    Not all wealthy owners do this of course, some put tens if not hundreds of thousands into breeding horses and kudos to them, but there are a few who take advantage of jurisdictions such as New Zealand who are sellers to reap the rewards of racing in jurisdictions such as WA without in my opinion putting in their fair share in the jurisdiction in which they reap their rewards.

    Our government and governing bodies investment in our industry has to be at the level of the industry that produces horses ( and stimulates wider scale economic activity) Whilst all is not rosey in the U.S. and whilst we cannot expect the casino revenues they have access to there the most successful state at present, and growing, is Ohio which only a few years ago legalised casinos and legislated that a portion of the proceeds be directed to fund racing. But not at an elite level, in the U.S. the bulk of elite races are stakes races funded by payments by breeders and owners, and nor at the level of the battlers, but at the level of of those who can breed by funding races restricted to stock bred in the state, which in turn stimulates economic activity for the state. And for the "battlers" this does have flow on effects, in breeding more horses and the claiming system in the U.S. horses are available for purchase to the "battlers" at much less then production cost, which enables them to continue their participation in racing when the actual cost of breeding a horse for racing for them would likely be out of reach.

    I'll happily accept my $200 saving to register my foal this season, but I won't be incentivised to breed another that a $300k odd race series that the "savings" on registration cost could have funded might have incentivised me. I'll except my extra return for racing in restricted class with the horses I have, but I won't be incentivised to breed another if restricted class is all that is on offer.

    But to David Martin and Co, I say that I and everyone else would have found the $200 odd to register our foals this spring and raced on in restricted class for $3500 next season if the money you've offered in handouts were invested in strategies to increase the number of horses being bred and create growth in the industry. A strategy of handouts and of increased albeit slightly higher prizemoney restricted racing simply can't be sustained in the long term, the annualised decline in foal crop every year, and there's no reason to think that it will change this year from the last seven, won't allow it.

  5. #5
    Super Moderator Stallion Messenger will become famous soon enough Messenger's Avatar
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    Dot, in the past I have said that the Hunter Cup could be our Melbourne Cup but it is not for if it was - more than 1% of people would have heard of it
    The Thin Green Line - Supporting the Rangers who protect the world's endangered animals against poachers

  6. #6
    Senior Member Horse Of The Year Dot will become famous soon enough
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    And who's fault is that Kev but our own.

  7. #7
    Member Filly hugdon will become famous soon enough
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    have bought into a Lincoln Royal filly
    To become relevant "again" the industry needs both long and short term goals I have no idea on KPI's, goal setting and whether or not each state would look after itself or if they could/would combine on certain criteria etc. I do know however that Chicago Bull returned to racing last Friday and won with a leg in the air. I rarely buy papers so I have no idea if his return was promoted. This is where it should start. Engender interest in the game. Deliberately start rivalries. Have a trainer come out and become outspoken/controversial you know my horse is better than your horse stuff. Gosh self praise is no recommendation BUT it is free!! Look at what Gaye Waterhouse did for years. Her horse would win a 2 yr old race by a few lengths and next thing it is headed for the Golden Slipper/Blue Diamond etc Recently I was told that Kalgoorlie had been axed. This person was somewhat annoyed by this. As such I asked to be sent the relevant info and I also would add mjy voice of discontent and go see the local pollies. Well I am still waiting! So is this apathy or forgetfulness. I don't know for I also didn't follow up. I just thought about again now whilst writing this

  8. #8
    Senior Member 4YO eliteblood has a spectacular aura about eliteblood's Avatar
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    There is another elephant in our room and it relates to this years 2YO Breeders Crown heats.
    The Qld heats consisted of 2 starters in the colts heat and 3 in the fillies heat.
    Today's NSW heats comprise 2 colts and 4 fillies.
    The NZ heats drawn for 20/7 consist of 3 colts and 2 fillies.
    Worrying times !!!!!

  9. #9
    Super Moderator Stallion Messenger will become famous soon enough Messenger's Avatar
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    Jim, I totally agree - promotion, promotion, promotion!

    Those numbers are a real worry Trevor
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  10. #10
    Senior Member Colt alphastud will become famous soon enough
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    Yes Trevor, field sizes for such futurities is a major problem.
    I had paid up for my 2yo and 3yo (both winners) and apparently missed the final payment deadline.
    The late payment fee was $1,800 and so I decided to withdraw.
    I have to take responsibility for the mistake however the process around payments and knowing whether your horse is sustained is messy.
    Glen Canty (HRV) sounded like he's serious about improving things. Let's see.
    These are the sort of races that we should be able to build some interest around.
    Thanks,

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