Miracle mile

[Smoken]

I agree that nobody has said that Trigger is better than any of the horse mentioned, simply what has been said or 'tried' is that Trigger most definitely did not run up to his capabilities.
I seriously don't understand why that can't be acknowledged by a few people..
If i was talking about 2-5 years ago, i would be very comfortable to say, he was a league above any of these horses, and that is no disrespect to any horses. I love them all

[aussiebreno]

Brenno myself i am not saying Trigger is today better than the 3 mentioned horses anywhere at any track cos he aint what he was, the light has faded a little no doubt, the old Trigger would have won his last couple of races at Melton i would say.

my point is simply that his last run was totally way down on the week before, simple. thats it, and you ask "Smoken" to back up that statement with why, well hows cos the Trainer said so! doesnt get any more real than that. however for me the proof was in the pudding...

Brenno, if you cant see the same horse having an easier lead, and no pressure in front until essentially the 600 or so, who in the same distance,same track 7 days earlier does run 12-14 or so metres FASTER (1:49.9 then 7 days later 1:50.2) then u really have the blinkers on.
Before the race i did not hear too many media "experts" or rival Drivers or Trainers totally writing him off and saying he will not be competitive because after his somewhat "surprising" (but great) return to form and favorite track most thought that it was totally possible that he would win the MM, or be right there anyway.
However he did not and i would say that most people would assess his run and say "he didnt run up to the form of the week before", in other words he was flat pretty much.
Greg Hayes has said that not many if any back up well from the Cordina to the MM.
Now Brendan, i am not saying and never have said that i think he would have won the MM if he ran up to the Cordina effort, cos Beau may very well have been too quick over the last 200 and may have beaten him by a head to 2m -5m who knows?
My only point is i i reckon he was flat in comparison.
I guess on In The Gig tonite we will have some evaluations of the race and different horses performances assessed, so will b interesting to what others say...

ITMQ used from gate against normal racing pattern in a blistering early time in Vic Cup and barely goes down. For the next 3 months you want to write him off for the Inter, saying no excuses etc. Moment Trigger goes down and it's because he just wasn't at his best and could have done better.

As for me with the blinkers on. I've already said times aren't eveything. FAR ran sub 1.50 as well last month. Didn't Sat night. Beaten in 1.54.5 as well last month. Track doesn't play identical every week.

[aussiebreno]

I agree that nobody has said that Trigger is better than any of the horse mentioned Then why argue with me when I said Beautide, CM and FAR would have beat Smoken Up in the Cordina?, simply what has been said or 'tried' is that Trigger most definitely did not run up to his capabilities.
I seriously don't understand why that can't be acknowledged by a few people..

Smoken Up may not have been at his best, but I think The top three have his measure anyhow. Which is fair enough to, he is 11 year old.

)

My quote posted yesterday.

[Smoken]

ITMQ worked at the start and had the best possible run imaginable, and he got whipped in the end by CB and MS, running away from him. Difference is, ITMQ ran up to his best potential that night, he just wasn't good enough on the night.
He is a beautiful very fast horse, with a massive sprint BUT he does not have a warrior fighting massive heart!
Everybody knows that! Triggers run in that race was absolutely Herculean.. He made that race, and he only got beaten how many meters, and do you remember the mountain of work he was doing? Reality is, we all have favourites, and i am happy to admit, Trigger is my all time favourite!
I wasn't arguing to begin with, more like a friendly debate. I do not know that either of the names mentioned would have beaten each other, as we are hypothesising different possibilities. They could have beaten Trigger, but i do not see you saying that Trigger could have beaten them. Why not? I mean, you say 2 years ago when he clocked in 148.5, he PROBABLY would have beaten this lot in the MM. Really? Only probably? Yet i have to give it to you, that on your other comment, you state that when Smoken Up was at his peak, it would not be in the case if he would win, but how much by..
The way he ran that night, he easily could have whipped them!

[Maorisidol]

ITMQ used from gate against normal racing pattern in a blistering early time in Vic Cup and barely goes down. For the next 3 months you want to write him off for the Inter, saying no excuses etc. Moment Trigger goes down and it's because he just wasn't at his best and could have done better.

As for me with the blinkers on. I've already said times aren't eveything. FAR ran sub 1.50 as well last month. Didn't Sat night. Beaten in 1.54.5 as well last month. Track doesn't play identical every week.

My comparison with Trigger week to week as stated is where many of the variables for the horse out front in both races (trigger) were very very similar. ie he led, he dictated the race. he won, he lost and was run down and beaten by 12m.
Easy to compare performance.
It wasnt that one week he was in the death next week he was 1/4 back and one week 1mile next week standing start 2700m! or 1 mile but was sitting 5th as opposed to 1 mile leading. weather basically same, in comparison to FAR 1:54.5 when the Murray River was running down the front straight!!!!
variables so close to identical an easy comparison can be made because of course also led both races, pretty easy really.

[aussiebreno]

My comparison with Trigger week to week as stated is where many of the variables for the horse out front in both races (trigger) were very very similar. ie he led, he dictated the race. he won, he lost and was run down and beaten by 12m.
Easy to compare performance.
It wasnt that one week he was in the death next week he was 1/4 back and one week 1mile next week standing start 2700m! or 1 mile but was sitting 5th as opposed to 1 mile leading. weather basically same, in comparison to FAR 1:54.5 when the Murray River was running down the front straight!!!!
variables so close to identical an easy comparison can be made because of course also led both races, pretty easy really.

Beautide eased down 9m > Abettorpunt (race run to suit Abettorpunt)
Smoken Up pushed out 4m > Abettorpunt (race not so much run to suit Abettorpunt)

Beautide eased down 5m > Smoken Up pushed out
-------------------------------------------------------------

For A Reason 10m + > Mach Beauty
Smoken Up 4m > Mach Beauty
For a Reason 6m+ > Smoken Uo

Pretty easy really.

[Smoken]

So Brenno, what do you believe what might have happened if MB took a trail immediately on Beautides back, like he did on Trigger's back?
I use the word believe, because there is no realistic and true answer to what might have happened, hence i cannot use the word know, because that would mean that you have knowledge of the uknown.
I have spoken to quite a few people regarding this years miracle mile, and they all said the same thing, the race was very average over all, but the hype was amazing! Beautide, nice win but non memorable win to me personally, no disrespect intended! CM was one of the better runs of the lot of them, and even he compounded. FAR, average to me, IV decent enough, Trigger well there is no point goiung around in circles with my analysis and reasoning for his very poor effort.. Restrepo, crap draw, TTL, Don't bother coming back to Menangle, MB, needs a break!

[aussiebreno]

So Brenno, do you believe what might have happened if MB took a trail immediately on Beautides back?
I use the word believe, because there is no realistic and true answer to what might have happened.
I have spoken to quite a few people regarding this years miracle mile, and they all said the same thing, the race was very average over all, but the hype was amazing! CM was one of the better runs of the lot of them, and even he compounded. FAR, average to me, IV decent enough, Trigger well there is no point goiung around in circles with my analysis and reasoning for his very poor effort.. Restrepo, crap draw, TTL, Don't bother coming back to Menangle, MB, needs a break!

If MB sat on Beautides back. Given Beautide sat outside him at Newcastle and beat him by 15m I think that says it all.
If by average they mean quickest Miracle Mile ever then I fully agree.

[Smoken]

That says, that MB went like a maniac that night, and is clearly not suited to racing like that. He compounds something chronic! How can any of us truly know, how MB would have performed on the back of Beautide? We can't, we can only assume like everything else. There is some truth in dribs and drabs in what everybody is saying, no one is flat out wrong or right!
How do we know that he didn't peak in the Cordinia sprint? So so many variables and hypothesis, it can make you go loco
Nobody thought he would perform as good as he did on Triggers back, and he suprised many people.
Spoke to a mate today, that ended up going to the MM, and i asked him what the track was like, and his opinion was, they should have run much faster times! Maybe they are all tired..

[aussiebreno]

That says, that MB went like a maniac that night, and is clearly not suited to racing like that. He compounds something chronic! How can any of us truly know, how MB would have performed on the back of Beautide? We can't, we can only assume like everything else. There is some truth in dribs and drabs in what everybody is saying, no one is flat out wrong or right!
How do we know that he didn't peak in the Cordinia sprint? So so many variables and hypothesis, it can make you go loco
Nobody thought he would perform as good as he did on Triggers back, and he suprised many people.
Spoke to a mate today, that ended up going to the MM, and i asked him what the track was like, and his opinion was, they should have run much faster times! Maybe they are all tired..

The only truth we have is Beautide won.