ODDS AND ENDS - not worth a thread but worth a post

[Messenger]

We have talked about it before on here but there really should be a way of evening out the 'randomness' eg working on field average being 10 or 12 you say that over time numerically the average draw should be 5 or 6 so lets say there is a computer program that adds up the last 5 or so starts for a horse and calculates what draw a horse requires to bring its average closer to 5/6

[codywinnell]

We have talked about it before on here but there really should be a way of evening out the 'randomness' eg working on field average being 10 or 12 you say that over time numerically the average draw should be 5 or 6 so lets say there is a computer program that adds up the last 5 or so starts for a horse and calculates what draw a horse requires to bring its average closer to 5/6

Not in my opinion, Kev. Unless every single horse in those RBD races keep racing against one another in all "5 or so races" and share it around completely evenly, that system wouldn't work. Random means random. So good luck/bad luck. It's random.

I remember two trainers used to tell me they drew poorly all the time in RBD races. I looked up the stats and it turns out both of them actually had well above average good barrier draws in RBD races. They were shocked, but the stats were hard facts. Stats don't lie.

Bad luck in races or at the barrier draws is annoying for those on the wrong end of it, but that's racing IMO. Always has been.

[aussiebreno]

So you can have a horse drawing 4, 5, 7, 8 to even it out but when you drew 4 and 5 you had speedsters drawn to your inside and only ended up one out and four back anyway. Just keep it random. Not too mention 6 at Menangle is a bit different to 6 at Penrith.

[Messenger]

I am not suggesting anything is likely to be the perfect system but I think it might share the draws around

Take R3 at Geelong tonight
and lets pretend that the previous starts numbers next to each horses name
are actually their previous barrier draws (I am doing this so that I can be lazy and just put up this snip)

We will total the last 4 supposed barrier draws for each runner

So their barriers have been and the totals are
1 - 4,8,6,9 = 27
2 - 5,1,8,7 = 21
3 - 5,3,3,3 = 14
4 - 1,4,3,5 = 13
5 - 9,4,10,6 = 29
6 - 9,5,1,10 =25
7 - 9,7,4,5 = 25
8 - 4,4,2,2 = 10
9 - 8,6,4,6 = 24
10 - 2,2,4,6 =14

So worst total under this system should have got barrier 1 down to lowest total copping barrier 10 - see new Red numbers on Snip
The biggest problem I see it having is that the longer it is in place, the more horses will have pretty much the same totals (and splitting according to their last barrier will be used)

[Messenger]

Yep thats him. Went super!! Still got the mares other offspring and she in foal to Somebeach.

Next start on Tuesday does not look like the smartest placement - why take on C4's and C5's now

https://www.harness.org.au/fields.cf...2520LOVE&f=1#7

[aussiebreno]

I am not suggesting anything is likely to be the perfect system but I think it might share the draws around

Take R3 at Geelong tonight
and lets pretend that the previous starts numbers next to each horses name
are actually their previous barrier draws (I am doing this so that I can be lazy and just put up this snip)

We will total the last 4 supposed barrier draws for each runner

So their barriers have been and the totals are
1 - 4,8,6,9 = 27
2 - 5,1,8,7 = 21
3 - 5,3,3,3 = 14
4 - 1,4,3,5 = 13
5 - 9,4,10,6 = 29
6 - 9,5,1,10 =25
7 - 9,7,4,5 = 25
8 - 4,4,2,2 = 10
9 - 8,6,4,6 = 24
10 - 2,2,4,6 =14

So worst total under this system should have got barrier 1 down to lowest total copping barrier 10 - see new Red numbers on Snip
The biggest problem I see it having is that the longer it is in place, the more horses will have pretty much the same totals (and splitting according to their last barrier will be used)

You are also assuming 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10 is the order of the best draws. SR2 and even SR1 is better than FR6 and FR7 at many tracks and also depending on your horses gate speed.

In those horses last four I would have no doubt some of them were PBD races. If you go in a PBD and draw 1 why be disadvantaged next start in a RBD under an evening up system.

Next start on Tuesday does not look like the smartest placement - why take on C4's and C5's now

https://www.harness.org.au/fields.cf...2520LOVE&f=1#7

So he draws close to the inside and can just roll to front and run another sub 1.53. The trainers of the higher assessed horses would be ruing their bad luck with the placement of their horses that they give away the barrier draw to a horse they won't get near.

[Messenger]

You are also assuming 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10 is the order of the best draws. SR2 and even SR1 is better than FR6 and FR7 at many tracks and also depending on your horses gate speed.

In those horses last four I would have no doubt some of them were PBD races. If you go in a PBD and draw 1 why be disadvantaged next start in a RBD under an evening up system.

I am not assuming that at all, I am just suggesting a system that 'might' mean every horse gets the spread of possible barrier numbers. PLEASE Brendan, who do you think you are talking to - a Newb? If you wanted the system to be preferential you would allocate the draws 1,2,3,9,10, or whatever. I am just playing with numbers here - if such a program was developed it would be easy to have it exclude PBD's


So he draws close to the inside and can just roll to front and run another sub 1.53. The trainers of the higher assessed horses would be ruing their bad luck with the placement of their horses that they give away the barrier draw to a horse they won't get near.

I am not saying he won't blitz them again - I am just saying I would prefer to seem him in a C1 (don't follow NSW so I do not know if your system makes it hard for you to get what you want)

[aussiebreno]

I am not saying he won't blitz them again - I am just saying I would prefer to seem him in a C1 (don't follow NSW so I do not know if your system makes it hard for you to get what you want)

Just leave it random.
C1/C3 PBD C. As a C1 they knew he would draw close to the inside against horses he is better than. Good placement.

[Messenger]

Just leave it random.
C1/C3 PBD C. As a C1 they knew he would draw close to the inside against horses he is better than. Good placement.

Good point

[aussiebreno]

Good point

Thats if it was the original program. Could have just been a race put together from noms received.