The insanity of the inferences from old mate and the rest of the peanut gallery are two-fold.
Firstly, even if her trial was not particularly sparkling, she was in with 2 other very handy Luke McCarthy trained mares, no less than (Our) Sixpence (1:55.5 & a slate of 39-11-5-2 & $161,657 banked) who won it and Lady Euthenia (1:53.3 & a slate of 34-21-4-0 & $449,065 banked) who finished 3rd also in handy enough time. To top that off, Lilac Stride is exactly not some no name mare. Admittedly she will be 1st up from a spell BUT this will be after stringing 5 or 6 impressive wins together at the end of her last prep. when in against her own sex &/or sex & age group including taking out the 4yo+ Mares Breeders Crown in slashing style. It is not as though this is a mare that has done nothing to date. She's got a 1:54.4 mark, a slate of 47-15-12-7 & $245,448 banked. Big surprise if she wins? Some great training effort to do so off the back of one so so trial? Gimme a break.