is it possible that this rule may be manipulated by connections out there by supplying 'decoy' tactics, to steer punters away from their runners whom then start at larger odds than they may have otherwise?
[vvv] nah, i doubt it very much. For the most part i think it's only the real diehards and the irascible (such as myself) that tend to listen to such announcements and then see if they play out that way. That being said, i've been around them pretty much all my life and for a pretty a large slice of that i've had a bet and in the end, whatever the announcement happens to be...tactics, gear, phases of the moon...unless they say something that's along the lines of 'connections of harry's boy have spoken to the stewards and the driver has elected to fall out the back of the cart at the 600m if circumstances permit' then i'm backing whatever i was always going to back, regardless. [end]
if roman republic wins that race at penrith on 8th sept, after leading, when connections advised its tactics would vary from usual and be driven with cover, what happens? The connections get a reprimand, or say 'circumstances changed' and no action is taken, while punters have decided not to bet on that horse, or have decided to bet on another runner, and therefore roman republic starts a $3.30 chance whereas it might have started a $2.50 chance otherwise.
[vvv] apparently, if you win you get fined (roman stride). If you get beaten you don't (roman republic). . Further to that, if you're jimmy durante you've got a big schnozz (roman nose).[end].
another example i have is @ menangle on 1st aug:
Connections of my uptown attitude advised stewards the horse would be driven further back. The week before it led from gate 6 in a 27 and change 1st quarter and was cut down late. The horse leads all the way to win. The horse won the race so the stewards take no action regarding the opposite change of tactics, but if nothing was mentioned to the public re change of tactics then its likely the horse starts at shorter odds.
[vvv] you have just shot my win and get fined, lose and skate theory to pieces but at the same time significantly bolstered my view that the rule is applied arbitrarily at best. I'll take the .50 any day.[end]
as a punter, when i bet on a horse believing it will lead or go forward and it goes back, thats fine, im happy to do my money. But when an official statement is made and the opposite happens, that doesnt do any good for an industry already shot with punters confidence.
[vvv] couldn't agree more. I believe they're better off with no statement whatsoever than a statement that doesn't pan out and especially so one that doesn't pan out and that apparently nothing is done about afterwards. [end]