'Brosnan winds down - the game is buggered'

[Mister JayKO]

I gather those figures are for the top 3 from the top 10 of each state. Even if the top 10 was very close, you are going to see the top 3 have 30+% so those percentages are not mind blowing really but I know the point you and Dan are making

Using my Vic Only Winning Trainers database (for TAB meetings only)
The Top 15 trainers have won 1072 out of the possible 3560 races ie over 30%

My db lists 579 trainers winning at least one race in Vic
The top 15 is only 2.6% of 579
2.6% of trainers winning 30% of races

I can then take that figure in 2 directions

I could factor in all the trainers who are not on my db because they have not won a race
I am thinking the 2.6% would then become something like
<2% of trainers winning 30% of races (that is allowing for 200 non winning trainers)

The other way I could go would be to eliminate all the hobby trainers from my db
Would halving the 579 be enough? (Saying that there are 290 pro/semi pros)
If so then you could say
5.2% (2.6 x 2) of pro/semi pro trainers are winning 30% of the races

Even if I said there were only about 150 pro/semi pro trainers
that still equates to
10% of them winning 30% of the races

It would seem the pie is definitely not being shared around enough

The other argument would be that as well as the hobby trainers there should only be about 50 pro/semi pro trainers for the size of the Vic market
Some time back I can remember mentioning how little in stakes some of these top trainers are even bringing in
Looking at the linked table, Shayne Cramp for instance has <$800k of prizemoney
http://www.harness.org.au/ausbreed/r...425?d=11082014
He is Victoria's leading trainer by winners.
He obviously makes most of his money from training fees BUT on that return to owners I doubt they are very far ahead
(lets say 50 horses in the stable through the course of the season costing owners $15k each in fees etc)

Back to NZ. I would think that the NZ industry would be similar in size to the Vic industry
Would I be right in thinking that there are at least 50 pro/semi pro trainers in NZ?

Kev, with respect, statistical analysis doesn't always give you the real lie of the land. I would suggest that a very large % of the horses in the Cramp barn are there on "deals" and usually it's no cost to the owner for a fixed % of the stakes earnt, thus his training fee income would be insignificant. Most horses have been somewhere else beforehand, The NZ industry racing wise is much, much smaller than Australia, hence the export option and as Viv has pointed out is going to get smaller through the reduction in breeding.




http://www.hrv.org.au/hrv/index.cfm/...ers-directory/


The above is a link to the HRV Licence Holders Directory - If I could have dropped it into excel in an easier format I would have done an analysis for you. The first thing that hits you is the vast number of licenced trainers or drivers and I would suggest that 85% are in the hobbyist category. That is harness racings bread and butter and its heartland, burn them and you have nothing left. As well as winners you have to look at runners and who is providing them.

[trish]

[QUOTE=Messenger;34974]I am having trouble getting my head around why so many horses can only win one race. Who is winning the C1's in NZ?

With Richard Brosnan, I wonder whether the horses from his stable that have been sold were supposed to be his bread and butter horses

Hi Kev . When you have a horse in NZ that may win 3 or 4 races over a period of time , making you zero dollars in the end . Would you keep racing it or take 20K - 30K from someone in Australia ?

[Messenger]

Kev, with respect, statistical analysis doesn't always give you the real lie of the land. I would suggest that a very large % of the horses in the Cramp barn are there on "deals" and usually it's no cost to the owner for a fixed % of the stakes earnt, thus his training fee income would be insignificant. Most horses have been somewhere else beforehand, The NZ industry racing wise is much, much smaller than Australia, hence the export option and as Viv has pointed out is going to get smaller through the reduction in breeding.

I know statistics are not the full picture Stu but lists like who has won how many are more than just statistics - they are the facts.

If most at the Cramps are on deals he would want to be getting a fair whack of the winnings (%?) It would be a good caper for owners to be on no fees - buy a horse for <$15k and you would be better off than a fee payer even if you split the prizemoney (unless your horse wins $40k for the season)

I know how much bigger Oz is than NZ - you should have noticed that I was comparing it to Vic only (which in itself would still be a bigger industry than NZ)




http://www.hrv.org.au/hrv/index.cfm/...ers-directory/


The above is a link to the HRV Licence Holders Directory - If I could have dropped it into excel in an easier format I would have done an analysis for you. The first thing that hits you is the vast number of licenced trainers or drivers and I would suggest that 85% are in the hobbyist category. That is harness racings bread and butter and its heartland, burn them and you have nothing left. As well as winners you have to look at runners and who is providing them.

Thanks for the link. With 20 pages of Vic Licence holders there, I figure that to be about 1200, and so my estimate of around 800 participating trainers in Vic may not be too far under as I imagine there would be a fair few non participating/retired Licence holders
In estimating how many pro/semi pro trainers Vic might be able to 'properly' support you would have noticed that I said "as well as the hobby trainers"
I hope you are not suggesting I am talking about burning hobbyists - if so you have not read many of my posts

[Messenger]

[QUOTE=trish;35003]

I am having trouble getting my head around why so many horses can only win one race. Who is winning the C1's in NZ?

With Richard Brosnan, I wonder whether the horses from his stable that have been sold were supposed to be his bread and butter horses

Hi Kev . When you have a horse in NZ that may win 3 or 4 races over a period of time , making you zero dollars in the end . Would you keep racing it or take 20K - 30K from someone in Australia ?

I hear you Trish. The thing is that they are the owners - as far as the trainer goes they may as well just be moving them to another stable - we hear from Richard how it is hurting him. It makes for a debate as to whether trainers need a share in most of the horses they train so that Sales are income for them too.

Would Aussie's be paying that much for ordinary horses? They are not going to make a buck either of course.

Apart from bread and butter horses most successful trainers need an A grader every couple of seasons - you have to hold onto a couple with potential or you have not got a ticket in the lottery (once again the trainer needs a share/a say)

[trish]

Hi Kev . The bottom feeders are growing in numbers as the big name trainers expand . The big trainers are appearing at all of the tracks now so you can't get away from them . Having a share in nothing is still nothing . If the trainer owns a share he or she can't charge as much and will loose whatever he makes in the sale . I hope this new divided stakes system can help some of these small guys from being cannon fodder , but I think we'll be racing for less prize money in the end .

[Viv Strangman]

The first sign that you have a nice horse in New Zealand and your phone will ring off the wall. The battle then is to hold on to it. I had a share in a nice trotter here a couple of years back. Won 4 fairly quickly and the money for him was stupid. You have to take the money because you are never going to win anything close to it here. Kiwis are sellers for a whole lot of reasons and Richard has covered some of those but trainers here are battling and Richard will have company in the next few months.

[trish]

I agree Viv . One thing about the Kiwi horses is that they are generally very well educated . Horsemanship still means a great deal over there. Most horses come over ready for mobile or stands . They're complete race horses .

[teecee]

[QUOTE=Messenger;35005]

I hear you Trish. The thing is that they are the owners - as far as the trainer goes they may as well just be moving them to another stable - we hear from Richard how it is hurting him. It makes for a debate as to whether trainers need a share in most of the horses they train so that Sales are income for them too.
Would Aussie's be paying that much for ordinary horses? They are not going to make a buck either of course.

Apart from bread and butter horses most successful trainers need an A grader every couple of seasons - you have to hold onto a couple with potential or you have not got a ticket in the lottery (once again the trainer needs a share/a say)

Very few if any horses in NZ make anything close to break even.
As Trish says if someone in Aussie offered you 20k-30k would you take it or keep racing? You'd take the dosh and so would the trainer. After all he / she gets 10% minimum. We are a marketplace for others. that is how we best survive but as viv said this years foal crop is now below 2000. There must be a few more close up shops to come.

[trish]

[QUOTE=teecee;35015]

Very few if any horses in NZ make anything close to break even.
As Trish says if someone in Aussie offered you 20k-30k would you take it or keep racing? You'd take the dosh and so would the trainer. After all he / she gets 10% minimum. We are a marketplace for others. that is how we best survive but as viv said this years foal crop is now below 2000. There must be a few more close up shops to come.

DOOMSDAY!!!!!

[Triple V]

I agree Viv . One thing about the Kiwi horses is that they are generally very well educated . Horsemanship still means a great deal over there. Most horses come over ready for mobile or stands . They're complete race horses .

>>VVV>> Horsemanship also covers feet and teeth...and somebody clearly forgot to tell many Kiwi horsemen about those aspects. The number of Kiwi horses that turn up over here with quarter cracked/abscessed/ generally buggered up feet and mouths like bear traps is staggering. Little wonder so many improve so quickly. Handicapping and Husbandry relief combined. BOOOOOOOOM!