Does anyone know what the Soho Tribeca adjourned inquiry is about?
http://www.harness.org.au/racing/fie...17#FVM28111724
Printable View
Does anyone know what the Soho Tribeca adjourned inquiry is about?
http://www.harness.org.au/racing/fie...17#FVM28111724
A big call Danno. Lazarus has been a beaten favourite both times. The difference in prizemoney is $54k by running 2nd instead of first. I am not sure any trainer or owner would play that game. He may get a better draw in the final but the race distance is longer. The big guns have all qualified so no major shocks. I will wait until the draw and then pick one out, it is a close call at this stage.Quote:
Mark Purdon is quietly playing them all off a break, he hasn't asked any more of Lazarus than absolutely necessary so far and will have the horse 110% on final night. Only bad luck will beat him in the final and i haven't seen him in the heats.
Correction...Lazarus was second favourite in the first heat. Beaten 11m by Soho Tribeca.
Agree Pat, M P has expressed a little concern Lazarus has done more work than hoped in the first two rounds, without being able to win.Quote:
Originally Posted by Fan of Jate
The heats have certainly shown it's all about the draw in the final.
For the Vics, just heard San Carlo, has drawn 1 in his heat.
Draw not as crucial for Lazarus in the final. Easier to make up 20m over 2900m than it is over 2100m. Sectionals much more likely to suit Lazarus in a 2900m race. Lacks a tad bit of zip as evidence Waikiki Beach taking ground off him Miracle Mile and unable to catch Lenny. Can run all day as evidence NZ Cups and Vic Cup. Over 2900m Kim Prentice can't run the deadly middle sectionals to put Lazarus out of the race - Prentice needs to leave a bit more in the tank for Soho that in turn puts Lazarus in the race. Tiger Tara not going to go a 26.2 final quarter in the 2900m final. Lazarus still a deserved favourite.
Junior giving Mark a hip and shoulder somewhere :D
Fields for Round 3
http://www.harness.org.au/racing/fie...17#GPM01121715
Lazarus due for a draw in the final.
Heat 7 Barrier Draw:
1 CHICAGO BULL NZ (WA)
2 MAJORDAN (NSW)
3 CODE BLACK NZ (NSW)
4 LETS CHASE THE DREAM NZ (WA)
5 SHANDALE NZ (WA)
6 TIGER TARA NZ (NSW)
7 MOTU PREMIER NZ (WA)
8 OUR JIMMY JOHNSTONE NZ (WA)
9 THE BUCKET LIST NZ (WA)
Heat 8 Barrier Draw:
1 SAN CARLO (VIC)
2 SIMPLY SUSATIONAL NZ (WA)
3 DEVENDRA (TAS)
4 CUT FOR AN ACE (WA)
5 AMERICANBOOTSCOOTA (WA)
6 MAJOR CROCKER (VIC)
7 LENNYTHESHARK (VIC)
8 MR MOJITO NZ (VIC)
9 SOHO TRIBECA (WA)
Heat 9:
1 EGODAN (NSW)
2 GALACTIC STAR NZ (NSW)
3 OHOKA PUNTER NZ (WA)
4 TANAKA EAGLE (WA)
5 VULTAN TIN (WA)
6 JAMBIANI (WA)
7 LAZARUS NZ (NZ)
8 YAYAS HOT SPOT NZ (NSW)
9 HAVE FAITH IN ME NZ (NZ))
Still sweating on that link to provide fields for heats 8 & 9
Cannot find them on the WA or Inter sites either (I don't find either of them to be current enough)
EDIT Teecee's fields link now has them all
Lazarus gets easiest heat
Agree Pat, M P has expressed a little concern Lazarus has done more work than hoped in the first two rounds, without being able to win.Quote:
Originally Posted by Fan of Jate
The heats have certainly shown it's all about the draw in the final.
Not going to repeat myself lads, but I will have to say I told you so after it's all over........
$10 for Lenny is good money in the final, especially if it was just a one off finishing third at Bunbury. A bit early to write him off, he is probably the most proven topline horse at the Inters, he has gate speed and stamina. Be a worry though if he cant run San Carlo down on Friday night.
I know Lenny is just an 8yo and many standardbreds peak around this age but I would not be surprised if Lenny feels it a bit more nowadays. Fresh he looked fantastic but I wonder whether that is the go with him now - the next start may tell us. 3 races in 8 days is no easy task at this level. I reckon he will appreciate the week to the final if he can get an easy run on Friday but it is a case of the old star v the new starsQuote:
Originally Posted by Fan of Jate
Lenny may struggle with the back up but the reality is his best is still just as good as he ever been.Quote:
Originally Posted by Messenger
4x big wins in Open age career.
-WA Interdom was a FFA
-Last season Vic Cup and Miracle Mile extra 10metres Smolda beats him
-Vic Cup drawn 1 in a walkover
His biggest 2-3 have come in past 6-12 months so certainly not past it. He has had wins where there has been 1x Grand Circuit star in the field but the only time he has won a race with multiple grand circuit stars in the field was the Miracle Mile and Smolda nearly had him and a mile suits Lenny but isnt Lazarus go.
His record sees him being beaten by Beautide, Christen Me, Smolda, Hectorjayjay in years the Grand Circuit has been thinner, but now with 3 absolute top liner 5yos suring up the Grand Circuit ranks Lenny may be as good as ever, but it wont be good enough.
You may be on the money Kev, a few good ones coming through now and will test him. He often gets underestimated though, Soho Tribeca is trading in unknown waters and I cant see him winning if he draws a back row. Despite the Lazarus admirers he has not won a heat yet so he cant be going at his best and yet is still favourite for the final. Not convinced Tiger tara can keep backing up either but he is certainly flying at the minute. So that leaves the Bull and the only query on him is not having raced in Group 1's against the very best, but this is his home track and he can break track records to win. It is Lenny or Chicago Bull for me.
I love thisQuote:
Originally Posted by teecee
Meanwhile, Alexandra Park hold rare back to back meetings tonight and tomorrow night to accommodate their huge pre-Christmas bookings
You would love to have this 'problem' all around Australia
It is Friday so the workers on the East coast can stay up late :D
Heat 7 : 9.54pm AEDT
Heat 9 : Midnight AEDT
The kiwis have this down to an art formQuote:
I love this
Meanwhile, Alexandra Park hold rare back to back meetings tonight and tomorrow night to accommodate their huge pre-Christmas bookings
You would love to have this 'problem' all around Australia
Big congrats to the San Carlo team, through to the final. Bec Bartley joins a fairly exclusive club, I D heat winning driver and finalist. http://www.harnessracingforum.com/im...ons/icon14.pngQuote:
Originally Posted by arlington
As highlighted in tonight's coverage - the draw is all important as Galactic Star is the only horse to win a heat without leading
Chris Lewis and Have Faith In Me, the renewed kids on the block.
Have faith in me is being sold to the US
. Runoneover had been sold to the US
Every final quarter has been low 27s or 26s. The exception Lazarus 27.9. Shock horror draw didn't matter because he drew wide and then worked to the lead.
Last year the Inter final final quarter was 28.4. Consolation 29. Heats compared to 2900m finals are most likely different run races. Last year heat results remarkably like this year 7 leaders and a death won heats, plus Bling from the 1-1 mostly in low 27 final quarters.
Leader and death horse last years final did an Egodan/Yayas. Quinella came from back in the field.
So many different scenarios the way the race could be run, including many possible scenarios where a wide draw wins, that this infatuation with saying "the draw will be crucial' just seems like such a simplistic view to me. If one of the big guns does draw gate 1 and leads its not like he is going to be left alone for 2900m.
Hoping for a war with margins of a hd x hd, looking at the draw another way, I'm thinking the other big guns might be thinking it's crucial Lazarus doesn't draw 1. If he was to get the lead easy the other's are going to completely forget about the $160000+ 2nd place just to bring Lazarus undone? Only a simplistic thought.
Firstly you need to check the meaning of the word infatuation and also the context in which it is used. I've just read at least 6-7 articles this morning from respected writers /trainers on the interdominion and not one of them mentioned the barrier draw. The barrier draw has been mentioned by a few posters in this form and backed up with a commentary on why.Quote:
that this infatuation with saying "the draw will be crucial' just seems like such a simplistic view to me
Great run by San Carlo in probably the strongest heat, proved the value of drawing 1 if you are tough enough. Wonder what odds he will be in the final? Great story about a horse who didnt commence racing until he was 5.Quote:
Big congrats to the San Carlo team,
Enlighten me.Quote:
Originally Posted by Fan of Jate
(1) Tiger Tara (NSW)
(2) Lazarus (New Zealand)
(3) Vultan Tin (WA)
(4) Soho Tribeca (WA)
(5) Galactic Star (NSW)
(6) Lennytheshark (VIC)
(7) San Carlo (VIC)
(8) Shandale (WA)
(9) Have Faith In Me (New Zealand)
(10) Chicago Bull (WA)
Emergency 1 - Ohoka Punter (WA)
Emergency 2 - Devendra (TAS)
Emergency 3 - Major Croker (VIC)
Emergency 4 - The Bucket List (WA)
Lazarus wins unless someone cruels their own chances.
I wouldn't imagine anything crossing Tiger at the start. More chance of Tiger galloping than being crossed.
Which leaves these scenarios:
Probable: Tiger leads and hands up to Lazarus. Lazarus wins unless Tribeca or something comes on suicide mission.
Highly probable: Tiger leads and parks Lazarus. Lazarus wins unless Purdon is overzealous in wanting the lead or Tribeca or something comes on suicide mission.
Possible: Tiger leads. Lazarus crossed at start. Lazarus works to death and wins unless Tribeca or something on suicide mission.
Unlikely: Tiger leads. Lazarus crossed at start. Purdon stays in running line. Opens the race up a little bit. Tigers to lose.
Can't see anyone going on a suicide mission or Purdon putting in a bad drive so Lazarus just wins. Only way he could get beat on merit is if everything goes right for the Bull and he can outsprint him late - but even if everything did go right Lazarus probably still too good.
I'll change my top picks slightly from page 1 of this thread to include Tiger as a place chance.
$2.10 Lazarus looks juicy. $5.50 Tribeca a bit skinny. Probably couldn't take the $4 Tiger either. Probably won't place but Have Faith In Me must be a touch overs $5 solely on last weeks run - last 12-18 months been ordinary.
I think you will find that Pat already has Brendan when he said 'backed up with a commentary on why'Quote:
Originally Posted by aussiebreno
Infatuation generally refers to 'unreasoned' passion
ps I like your scenarios exploration in post 88
Does the little Bull stay on Tiger's back?Quote:
Originally Posted by aussiebreno
How perfect that worked out for Lazarus, we could'nt even give him the carpark.......absolutely brilliant draw. I can hear Purdon and co laughing loudly. The horses who drew 1-5 will be eternally grateful they are in that position to start the race. 6-10 will be chasing tail for 3k. Not sure if Lenny or the bull can run them down. This is the strongest field of the last three Inters.
I think so. Worst case 3rd horse on the fence (unless Hall has other plans I cant see Vultan Tin being able to drop in). The way Lazarus will run them along the gaps should come. Otherwise he will be 2nd horse on the fence and will be within striking distance.Quote:
Originally Posted by Messenger
Seeing as though Lazarus is poised to become Bettor's richest offspring
http://www.harnesslink.com/News/Laza...hest-offspring
and he is a stallion. I thought I would take a look at his family to see if it had produced any sires of note.
Lazarus will have to be a trailblazer in that respect for family U307
http://classicfamilies.net/cf/Family...meGroup&AD=ASC
Apart from Stars and Stripes the other noted performer that caught my eye was trotter Melpark Maid
She was a star for Don Smith
http://classicfamilies.net/CF/Histor...ntClass&AD=ASC
Her relationship to Lazarus is distant as his 9th dam is her 7th
There is another prospective star in U307 who is closely related to her however =
Cruisin Around whose 4th dam is Melpark's 2nd
We will have to see if he can add to his stellar 3yo season
Some pretty good trotters in Laz's family when you go through it Kev. Always liked families with plenty of trotting blood in the distant pedigree, when a good pacer comes along they are usually pretty tough. And Lazarus is REALLY tough!
Dad has Cruisin Arounds little brother. Not sure he's as good but he goes ok. Surprised to hear he's distantly related to Laz. Thanks for the heads up Kev
Interesting read/insight from 3 of the key drivers
http://www.harness.org.au/media-room...?news_id=35658