Originally Posted by
aussiebreno
Moreso a fan than a punter.
Figuring out the differences of times between tracks would be a big one. These opinions I am about to put forward aren't exact but are enough for you to get the picture.
I estimate 1.56 at Menangle = 2.00 at Wagga. But then the faster they go the bigger the gap, a 1.56 at Wagga could be a 1.50 at Menangle. This is because at both tracks they might go 62 first half and then at Wagga get home in 58 but get home at Menangle in 54. Sometimes a single quarter is more important than the race time.
Then you have the spectacle. Races are run different - and for the good. In traditionally run races they might go 30, 32, 29, 28 = 1.59. We are seeing a bit more of 30,30,30,29 = 1.59. I was looking at some of Somebeachsomewheres racing record yesterday. He would go 27,28,27,28...the last quarter wasn't necesarily the fastest. When the final quarter is the quickest you don't necesarily get to see every horse perform to 100% - there might be something in the tank that you don't get to know about as a punter (although of course you can take into account horses top speed and stamina etc to estimate what could have happened). If they've slowed up the last 400m you get to see every bit of what a horse can give. That is what Menangle can bring when drivers get confident with their horses capabilities. At the moment too many 27 flat final 400m quarters are occuring in 1.55/1.56 mile rates. Shouldnt happen. Eventually it will reduce.
As an aside, Luke McCarthy is the bet god damned driver to ever drive the track, closely followed by Darren Hancock. Any coincidence they've both spent time in America the last 5 years? If I was a driver at Menangle over the mile (taking into account specific horse) I would peel out 3 wide as they head into the back straight and go to the chair or the front. Drop out the first quarter, sustained speed for 1200m. Forget burning Smoken Up out of the gate...let him go 30,28,27,27 while the others have gone 28,30,27,27+. Can't catch him. Best horse wins. Thats a great thing about a track drivers can be confident of going fast.