Interdom 2022

On the Vic TAB, Honolua Bay is out to $4.20 while Expensive Ego is into $4.80. Act Now is $3.10 fav

Michael Guerin adamant that Spirit Of St Louis can cross Act Now - big ask when he is right next to him
Then he seems equally adamant that he hands up to Expensive Ego - as if Act Now is going to allow that
He is far more an expert than me but I cannot see it

I am being a sore loser but BLOODY CHEATS LANE

LOL stupidly had a saver on Honolua and for a second there, I thought he was going to cost me the $11 Act Now the place (from Brendan's futures tip)

Is there any plausible reason for the 28 2nd qtr and 26.4 3rd qtr? When you have Torrid Saint running past you theres problems. Had it won at the 1200m. Had it lost by the 400m.

Yes, I would have liked to see Greg Sugars driving him

Quote:

Originally Posted by Messenger

Yes, I would have liked to see Greg Sugars driving him

If only there was a driver like Nathan Jack available.

Thats an absolute minute of madness from the 1200m to 400m. Now we're left with a sprint lane and 3 fence going in folklore in the history books for the quinella.

Quote:

Originally Posted by aussiebreno

Is there any plausible reason for the 28 2nd qtr and 26.4 3rd qtr? When you have Torrid Saint running past you theres problems. Had it won at the 1200m. Had it lost by the 400m.

Well, I don't know what the lead time was but they appeared to dawdle. Typical for a big Group One drivers lacked courage. The track had nothing to do with it, had it been run on Sandown Park or Broken Hill the result would have been the same. Risk-averse drivers ensured the race was one to forget as a spectacle. Too many either overawed or just accepting of earning a losing drivers fee.

The last 1200 metres was a sprint to the death, nothing could come wide from the rear.

The Stewart and McCarthy runners were all disappointing and I wonder why. Torrid Saint! Hasn't he come from nowhere, C'mon the Mighty Saints! His owner and I are St Kilda tragics well conditioned for disappointment. Being runner up is like a win.

When the punt is everything the pseudo trotters consolation is a worry - even at this level, how can a serious punter trust they will get a run for their money

Compared to Tiger Tara's Tk Rec for 2760m (when he led all the way in the Hunter Cup), they certainly did dawdle the lead time in the pacers final, 6.4 sec slower while the last mile was about the same but more even
6.4 secs = 84m

From the TrotsVision coverage, amazing to see a fair percentage of the Melton crowd hanging around until the last (weather must be good) as when I have been to big nights, the mass exit after the big races has been most noticeable

Quote:

Originally Posted by aussiebreno

My take

Honolua $2.80 Either straight in running line or first crack at the lead. His Kilmore Cup run was almighty and he won't have to do it as hard this time around. With Act Now form horse of the heats.
Act Now $4.50 You're greatest strength begets your greatest weakness. Can see him working too hard early with too great a field chasing him not Bundoran this week. Fingers crossed for a sit because he showed in the mile heat he can run on strong with the best of them.
Shadow $8.00 Fantastic draw. Only a month ago beat Honolua in sub 1.49 from off them. Everyone wanted to jump off Mach Dan because he got beat in just outside track record time at Ballarat. Well Shadow only got 5m in track record time, the run wasn't as bad it looked with him paddling the final 100m.
Mach Dan $8.00 Of the horses who aren't in the possible category he is going to get the best run. Won't have to use petrol tickets so if those possible leaders use up early fuel Mach Dan will be best placed to swoop.
Ego $9.00 Unless the early lead battle stings too much and Luke can time his leadership attack perfect its hard to see him winning. Just too hard from the death. Will be thereabouts though.
Prince $17.00 Has had a good series but this price just reflects the cushy run and less distance covered.
Zuess $21.00 Will get straight into the running line, use no early petrol and could give some cheek late
Eclipse $21.00 Will have to come around them all when I viewed his best chance as sitting leaders back. Don't think he is good enough to do that.
Louis $21.00 There is no lead there and I can't imagine in the horses best interest to try. Can't see him getting near the horses who lob leaders and leaders back unless the speed is really on but in that case MD and others would run past Louis.
Bundoran $26.00 Going to have to come around them all. Admittedly almost knocked off the top 2 seeds in the past 2 heats but those big guns had more than enough reasons to be fading. Even if race rune to suit MD, Zuess, Louis etc still too good for him.
Delight $31.00 Similar run to MD who is better.
Pete $101.00 Was relegated to the 2nd tier FFA just 2 months ago.

Think I would have done pretty well here as a bookmaker. Shadow half the price, horses like Mach Dan and Ego over their starting price.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Messenger

Michael Guerin adamant that Spirit Of St Louis can cross Act Now - big ask when he is right next to him
Then he seems equally adamant that he hands up to Expensive Ego - as if Act Now is going to allow that
He is far more an expert than me but I cannot see it

Yep, Michael Guerin was also adamant that NSW racing and horses were far superior to Victoria he mentioned it twice a Kiwi know it all I would suggest.

Jason Grimson the only trainer with a bigger bag of tricks than Emma Stewart when it comes to the big ones.

Quote:

Originally Posted by aussiebreno

Think I would have done pretty well here as a bookmaker. Shadow half the price, horses like Mach Dan and Ego over their starting price.

It is easy for me to say this with hindsight but as well as blowing the opportunity to make it a 600m race, would Jodi have also had a better chance if she had made it a 2760m race, it would seem that Shadow is a pretty good mile horse

I just noticed that the Consolation MR was a full second quicker - the quinella could have been very competitive in the Final.
Crime Writer backing up in the Stawell Cup today

Quote:

Originally Posted by Messenger

It is easy for me to say this with hindsight but as well as blowing the opportunity to make it a 600m race, would Jodi have also had a better chance if she had made it a 2760m race, it would seem that Shadow is a pretty good mile horse

Possibly but if she couldn't judge speed for those 2nd and 3rd quarters how was she supposed to judge speed for 2760m.
Made it a 2500m race last week and Bundoran nearly ran him down who had the running line and come wide not the sprint lane like Shadow had.
I'm not sure Shadow has a distance preference either. Gone 1.53 over 2300m. Failed at mile in ID Heat. Grimson horses keep running. You cant train speed but you can train stamina (albeit if you have more stamina you can show that speed).

The public event sign was for the ID (3pm till midnight) - at around 4pm they started directing traffic - no right hand turn into Tabcorp Park - you had to go down to the float entry and do U turn to come back to the normal car park entry.
Traffic was very heavy early in the day - not sure why but when I arrived around 4, traffic was not too bad.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Yabbie

The public event sign was for the ID (3pm till midnight) - at around 4pm they started directing traffic - no right hand turn into Tabcorp Park - you had to go down to the float entry and do U turn to come back to the normal car park entry.
Traffic was very heavy early in the day - not sure why but when I arrived around 4, traffic was not too bad.

Were they stopping every car once they entered Melton Carol? (maybe not at 4)

I would be interested to know the on-track attendance but HRV tends to treat this as a state secret. On TV it appeared good by Melton standards although nothing comparable to the 37,000 at the Valley for Preaux Chevalier's win.

I have been to some big nights this year and done a rough count by pushing a lap inside and out and a very big night would be 5,000 at Melton
With free admittance, I imagine the only other way to calculate attendance would be a count by the parking attendant (who, when I have attended, stopped every car) or a door counter

sorry don't know the answer to that one :)

Quote:

Originally Posted by aussiebreno

Sportsbet have the top 3 ID point scorers Honolua Bay, Act Now and Mach Dan at $41 each for the Miracle Mile. Ladbrokes go as far as $61 for Mach Dan. Even Ego and Louis are $15 each with Ladbrokes. Outrageous. Too far out to load up but a couple dollars eachway wouldnt hurt.

Crazy prices confirmed!

I think they are set by Josh Jenkins

Quote:

Originally Posted by messenger

i think they are set by josh jenkins

hahahahaha!

Serious, my son-in-law works for Sportsbet

Quote:

Originally Posted by Messenger

Serious, my son-in-law works for Sportsbet

If he does, they might need to rethink that appointment.