Quote Originally Posted by aussiebreno View Post
My take

Honolua $2.80 Either straight in running line or first crack at the lead. His Kilmore Cup run was almighty and he won't have to do it as hard this time around. With Act Now form horse of the heats.
Act Now $4.50 You're greatest strength begets your greatest weakness. Can see him working too hard early with too great a field chasing him not Bundoran this week. Fingers crossed for a sit because he showed in the mile heat he can run on strong with the best of them.
Shadow $8.00 Fantastic draw. Only a month ago beat Honolua in sub 1.49 from off them. Everyone wanted to jump off Mach Dan because he got beat in just outside track record time at Ballarat. Well Shadow only got 5m in track record time, the run wasn't as bad it looked with him paddling the final 100m.
Mach Dan $8.00 Of the horses who aren't in the possible category he is going to get the best run. Won't have to use petrol tickets so if those possible leaders use up early fuel Mach Dan will be best placed to swoop.
Ego $9.00 Unless the early lead battle stings too much and Luke can time his leadership attack perfect its hard to see him winning. Just too hard from the death. Will be thereabouts though.
Prince $17.00 Has had a good series but this price just reflects the cushy run and less distance covered.
Zuess $21.00 Will get straight into the running line, use no early petrol and could give some cheek late
Eclipse $21.00 Will have to come around them all when I viewed his best chance as sitting leaders back. Don't think he is good enough to do that.
Louis $21.00 There is no lead there and I can't imagine in the horses best interest to try. Can't see him getting near the horses who lob leaders and leaders back unless the speed is really on but in that case MD and others would run past Louis.
Bundoran $26.00 Going to have to come around them all. Admittedly almost knocked off the top 2 seeds in the past 2 heats but those big guns had more than enough reasons to be fading. Even if race rune to suit MD, Zuess, Louis etc still too good for him.
Delight $31.00 Similar run to MD who is better.
Pete $101.00 Was relegated to the 2nd tier FFA just 2 months ago.
Think I would have done pretty well here as a bookmaker. Shadow half the price, horses like Mach Dan and Ego over their starting price.