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An excellent field with the winner exempt from the Hunter Cup ballot
Philadelphia Man 10m
Bitobliss 20m
For A Reason 30m
Off the fr:
Lennytheshark
Franco Ledger
Bit Of A Legend
and more
You would say only a couple of Aikens were the only one's without a place hope
It is a discretionary so For A Reason and Bitobliss seem a little hard done by on present form
http://www.harness.org.au/fields.cfm...romstate=vic#5
I think Philadelphia man has beaten the handicapper with only 10
Really?Quote:
Originally Posted by Big Mac
You think he should have 15 or 20m?
Lenny is C10 M4 $382,000 with 2 wins albeit last season over Guaranteed who is current Fav on TAB for Vic Cup and Hunter Cup.
Phil is C14 M4 $285,000 whose last 4 runs after 27 months in the paddock has won him an MO an M1 or better FFA, a C7 or better FFA, and a Group 2 Country Cup.
Based on Phils current aura and obvious ability i think 10m is granted, however based on the above in my opinion i think Lenny has beaten the handicapper, and should be back there with him.
FR
Jackka Clive
Wartime Sweetheart
5m
Steam Washed
Franco Ledger
Flaming Flutter
Star Chamber
Bit of a Legend
10m
Smudge Bromac
15m
Bitobliss
Lennytheshark
20m
For A Reason
Philadelphia Man
You might have the potential to be a handicapper Brendan (if we overlook the 5m error)Quote:
Originally Posted by aussiebreno
The order seems fine
just combine the fr, 5m and 10m
and the rest as is :D
If they brought the 5m intervals back it would make the handicapper's job much easier! But they'd be making the starter's job tougher ... and the last thing you want to do is make those stand-starts more difficult than they can prove sometimes...
I am pretty sure 15m, 25m, ...... are still in the rules Cody
Yeah, I think they are too Kevin, but I know the Victorian system doesn't use them anymore. I had a quick look over HRA rules the other day and saw 5m was still an option.
Hi Kev, Nothing wrong with having horses handicapped on 15m or 25m's if their career classification justifies it, Lenny has definitley beaten the handicapper probably due to his lack of recent racing but as Ash touched on, P-Man was off the scene for 27 months and his recent form has been very good but there's no reason that Lenny shouldn't be starting along side him. I was scratching my head with Breno's 5m's but no doubt the young fella is on the ball. I also think that Bit of a Legend has done well with the Handicapper, He's fairly smart and his recent form has been good, If Breno was the Handicapper, I would be hassling him about switching Smudge Bromac and Bit of a Legend and also giving Steam Washed a good draw as she's the only female in the field.Quote:
Originally Posted by Messenger
Always love listening to Greg Carpenter, Racing Vic Chief Handicapper. Wonder what Breno's radio voice is like? Even with the mare assessed M2, I thinks she deserves to be of the front. The Aiken camp will be smiling going into tomorrow night.
Not sure they will be smiling after the race though Wayne. I'm as big a fan as u can get re Lenny, but 1st up over the longer trip vs what looks an equine freak who is near his top looks a little beyond reach imo.Quote:
Originally Posted by arlington
Not sure what you'll all make of it, but spoke to Chris Shinn (Steamwashed) yesterday and he said she's got a "huge chance" in the race. She's $51! I'll be sending out our HRV digital email preview of the race later today and will include his comments. I found it interesting; he was very chipper. She's in great form, the mare.
Great to hear Chris was very "chipper" Cody 'laughs' and she has scooted around the Shepp track before. Will be a fascinating race to see and bet on. Speedmaps will be very interesting (have to take it they all go away from the stand?) Lenny has been driven with a sit at the trials, Steam Washed looking for the same. Breno, speed map please.
Sssssshhhhh!!Quote:
Originally Posted by codywinnell
Quote:
Originally Posted by Richard prior
would help if your inbox wasn't full Richard lol.
Love it when a driver is full of confidence ahead of a big race. Need more of it. Rare that they're such long odds, but could be a genius if he snares this correct and she runs a drum. Just checked and you're spot on -- two from two at Shep! :cool:Quote:
Originally Posted by arlington
there is $13 the place out there for people who like to shop but if u r betting to win u will get triple figures on the exchange come race time. I can't see it myself (reckon Shepp is way stronger than SA) but it sure could make for a rawkus Oz day. GL
Quote:
Originally Posted by brent_L
A market on NZ bred v Oz bred?
Quote:
Originally Posted by codywinnell
Another sssshhhh 'laughs' was referring to her trial form at Shepp over recent times. I think Blake may have spotted her, her trial times with Nadia a while back.
http://www.harness.org.au/results/in...n.searchTrials
Ahh very interesting indeed! Righto. I'm going silent ;)
Jason Bonington does not pick it a place but his suggested bet is Flaming Flutter each way. :confused:
It does not inspire confidence
Kev, No need to worry about Jason, We've got a couple of good tipsters on the Forum��Quote:
Originally Posted by Messenger
I most definitely dont worry about him Rich - just pointing out how strange his analysis looks
Yes i think that we'll pass on Jason and have a listen to our resident tipsters, Brent & Breno and see if they can find us a winner.Quote:
Originally Posted by Messenger
I see where you're coming from Kev. Well I guess Jason's just having a bit each way :)
Tips for the Cup Please, Shapes to be a cracking affair.
2yr Old Colts & Geldings Classic, 3,2,4 and 6
Philly Man @ $2- x 2 units
Others: potting Yankee Rockstar, I'll be backing Spidergirl hopefully at black figures and I'll also bet The Majestic to place as he is overdue to trot the whole way.
GL punters
Sensational acceleration by Franco Ledger. Like a few that had easy runs he was entitled to run on but it was the acceleration that he showed that will make him a real threat in anything he runs in
Did Gavin go too early on Philadelphia Man or did the effort to take the lead from Lenny The Shark mid race take its toll ? Had he held PM back to the horse in the death, Franco Ledger might not have got out.
The 3rd Q seems fast but he clearly thought he had the horse to do it and he did still run the last < 28. I wonder whether he now opts for Guaranteed for toughness
In hindsight, Gavin probably could have held up for a bit longer but I think that the burst was designed to take the sting out of Lenny and the rest of the field, I thought the race was done and dusted on the corner, P- Man was out in front and rolling and it took a freakish performance to knock him over, Full marks to G.Webster and Franco Ledger, I had totally discounted FL after watching the SA Cup a few weeks ago when he pulled pretty hard and it would appear that Geoff has done a lot of work in a short space of time to get this fellow to settle.Quote:
Originally Posted by Adaptor
Obviously including Gavin, who in hell would have ever thought before the race,,, that ANYTHING, would come from 4 pegs on the turn, to run down Philly running 27.5 and 27.6 last 400?????????????Quote:
Originally Posted by Messenger
I think we are agreeing Ash - is that why you quoted me?
I was replying to Noel asking if Gavin went too early
Quote:
Originally Posted by Richard prior
Maybe the only work done was to listen to the owners / previous trainer.
his SA performance was totally upside down to his normal race pattern. It was much more the Franco Ledger we know here who turned up on Saturday night at Shepparton. Kept to a position in the field he has always had a pretty devastating sprint to finish off.
He got the run, He was able to produce his sprint and the end result is history.
In saying that he really does need the position to suit and get the breaks in his races. This is why he is not regarded as in the very top echelon here and against those in the Victoria, Hunter Cups and ID, I couldn't have him. those races are not sit, sprint affairs.
No excuses Philly Man imo, beaten fair & square. Looked to me that Gav was trying to make a statement the way he was driven. Extremely unlike Gav to go down that path, especially as he knows PM can go a 26.5 final section.
As far as the winner goes, I now make that 3 outstanding performances from as many outings in oz. 1st up he was as devastating late as he was Satdy night & even his last start 5th beaten 20m impressed me with the mistakes he made + racing against his true pattern. Whilst he may not be considered alongside the very best, his racing style definitely always gives him that knockout chance similar to that of a Chilli Palmer imo.