Quote Originally Posted by Danno View Post
Love your work Paul,
I am in neither camp on this one, however I recall an episode many years ago when I was still training on the Newcastle Showground, it was a very wet and muddy Sunday morning workouts, the track ( in those days 550 Yards circumference) was really slippery and even pacework with a set horse was about as quick as you'd like to go...along comes one of the local blokes and he says his horse worked it's last lap in 40 seconds!!!! ( the track record at the time was held by Bold Biami at 40.8 secs, and Bold Biami had just won the NSW Derby and RC Simpson Sprint)

I said to this bloke, mate did you have your watch turned on for the whole lap?????

He goes, aww yeah, the clock said 46 seconds , then I took off 3 seconds for the mud, another 2 seconds cos we worked a cart off the fence, and another cos I reckon he could have gone a bit quicker if I'd really got up him!!!!!

A very good old trainer once told me..dont worry about clocks and times, dont worry about what you ran second to and how the race panned out, measure your horse on what he can beat.

Cheers,
Dan


Reckon you're right. Heaps of other variables too but sometimes the times can help you spot one that comes out at big odds shortly after. Apart from $16 quaddie we take when we go to Melton Friday am not a punter but still take keen interest.

Give you an example. Watch this race - Race 7 TABCORP PARK MELTON 30 November. http://media.harness.org.au/vic/MXM30111201.wmv

Watch the horse in yellow that comes out of 7 (Wartime Sweetheart). Goes back and last at the mile. Never gets into the race really. If watching replay probably wouldn't think much of run.

The winner goes alright!! Winner went 1.56.4 last mile. 3rd horse Decorated Jasper went 1.55.97 last mile and came out and won last Saturday night. Wartime Sweetheart went fastest last mile (1.55.57) of the race. Had 1 run since. Drew back line and never got into race. In again tomorrow night and drawn back line again. Some fast ones off the front so speed will be on I reckon. If it goes 1.55.57 last mile again it won't be far off them and be big odds.

**NB** - Of all the $16 quaddies we've taken we've snagged 2. One paid $15.20 !!