First the Stands, next the Mobiles! Bring it on fellas.

[aussiebreno]

Hi Brendan,
I do not want this to be a "what if" exercise and only make this brief comment.If we are measuring batches of Widgets " two batches of 60 - 100 give a very different result". No they will not. yes they did. The bathurst 2yos V menangle. See my blue writing above on ABitDustys post where the % of horses at ages who started at two are very different.

Check http://www.daa.com.au/analytical-ideas/sample-size/

Back to the original argument of 2 year olds lasting etc. We all know the old saying about statistics but they are only valid if all data is constant.and of course ABitDustys stats weren't exactly constant but the above re skewed still stands

Thanks Ron

[2minuteman]

We will agree to disagree?

[aussiebreno]

We will agree to disagree?

If it helps you sleep at night.

[2minuteman]

Zzzzzzzzzzzzzz

[triplev123]

Hey, no fair. You're stealing my material Ron.

[A BIT DUSTY]

Hi Boy's sorry I haven't replied to your threads earlier but I was having trouble logging on.


Now aussiebrenno you seem to have confused the 2 test I conducted they are separate sets of stats but you somehow have combined them .
You surely don't mean that the Bathurst Crown and Tiara horses are bread and butter horses , the reason I chose that series was to get the best result for Jamie's theory as these babies would be the cream of the crop trained by the best trainers in the land ,I thought that the best bred and trained would be better to look at than those of lesser breed and trained.
Also I chose the better class horses at Menangle for the same reasons . You have a go at me for questioning Jamie's beliefs but he has not produced one piece of evidence to back it up at least I have attempted to get some FACTS.

Jamie you challenge the validity of my test because it was on one carnival, But it was on 78 of the cream of the crop as far as breeding and training is concerned, Remember owners have paid upwards of 7 or 8 hundred dollars so were not talking rubbish horses with no ability.

Now do not have the breeding stats for 2001 foals but I would seriously doubt that their were 780 individual 2yr old starters in N.S.W in 2003 so if I;m correct the 78 would represent 10% of starters which is a very BIG sample in terms of surveys.
The same applies to the better class horses ,I doubt you would find another 6 hundred horses of this class in the country so you are talking of a high percentage once again.

To all you critics REMEMBER FACTS AND FIGURES DON'T LIE BUT PEOPLE DO .

As a hobby owner, breeder, trainer, and self confessed bad driver,I would be the happiest bloke around if I was wrong about this. It would save the usual yearly quandary of should I KEEP THEM GOING FOR BATHURST OR TIP THEM OUT .

At the end of the day you really can only go on what you have learned and have been told over many years and go with your own beliefs.

I would love to see a qeuestionair on the subject with the view of all the older trainers I think I know what their response would be.

[Danno]

And you had the hide to suggest VVVs study was impartial?
Your stats from such a small, small cross-section of horses are skewed from one set of horses to the next.
Of course the best open age horses are going to race longer. Now go to a bread and butter meeting and do the same research - and do it for 100 meetings not 1. Remember most of the Bathurst horses only end up being bread and butter horses anyway.

Steady on Brendan, nobody has seen VVV's stats yet let alone have the opportunity to study them.

Loved your bit " most of the Bathurst horses only end up being bread abd butter horses anyway" I think that might be actually backing up the point abitdusty and myself were trying to make.

Cheers,

Dan

[aussiebreno]

Hi Boy's sorry I haven't replied to your threads earlier but I was having trouble logging on.


Now aussiebrenno you seem to have confused the 2 test I conducted they are separate sets of stats but you somehow have combined them .
You surely don't mean that the Bathurst Crown and Tiara horses are bread and butter horses , the reason I chose that series was to get the best result for Jamie's theory as these babies would be the cream of the crop trained by the best trainers in the land ,I thought that the best bred and trained would be better to look at than those of lesser breed and trained.
Also I chose the better class horses at Menangle for the same reasons . You have a go at me for questioning Jamie's beliefs but he has not produced one piece of evidence to back it up at least I have attempted to get some FACTS.

Jamie you challenge the validity of my test because it was on one carnival, But it was on 78 of the cream of the crop as far as breeding and training is concerned, Remember owners have paid upwards of 7 or 8 hundred dollars so were not talking rubbish horses with no ability.

Now do not have the breeding stats for 2001 foals but I would seriously doubt that their were 780 individual 2yr old starters in N.S.W in 2003 so if I;m correct the 78 would represent 10% of starters which is a very BIG sample in terms of surveys.
The same applies to the better class horses ,I doubt you would find another 6 hundred horses of this class in the country so you are talking of a high percentage once again.

To all you critics REMEMBER FACTS AND FIGURES DON'T LIE BUT PEOPLE DO .

As a hobby owner, breeder, trainer, and self confessed bad driver,I would be the happiest bloke around if I was wrong about this. It would save the usual yearly quandary of should I KEEP THEM GOING FOR BATHURST OR TIP THEM OUT .

At the end of the day you really can only go on what you have learned and have been told over many years and go with your own beliefs.

I would love to see a qeuestionair on the subject with the view of all the older trainers I think I know what their response would be.

Bathurst the best yearling sale and horses go to the best in the land? Bathurst is a nice sale but I think you've got it confused with the APG Premium sales. A stable I'm connected with usually take 1 or 2 or more to Bathurst and usually gets one into a final or at the very least a consolation. Yet the trips to the city are few and far between. Remember 80% of the horses at Bathurst are losers who don't make it to the finals. Those who run in the Silver Consolations for $5K are a lot different to a $25K Menangle race or a $50,000 Bohemia Crystal.

[aussiebreno]

Steady on Brendan, nobody has seen VVV's stats yet let alone have the opportunity to study them.

Loved your bit " most of the Bathurst horses only end up being bread abd butter horses anyway" I think that might be actually backing up the point abitdusty and myself were trying to make.

Cheers,

Dan

First start or two or twenty they were only every going to be bread and butter horses. 80% of the 2yos who head to Bathurst end up in a 5K silver consolation...

[triplev123]

I'm going to have to respectfully bow out here Dan because much of any reply that I might make to the above would be very, very likely to offend someone, somewhere...not yourself of course, I'm not talking about giving that sort of offence, as in saying something offensive or whatever. Rather I believe there are a number of assumptions you've made above that in reality are simply not factual & in endeavouring to debunk them I'll open up a Hornet's Nest.
Let's leave it at that shall we...and in the interim I will pull out all stops to track down that study & to post the conclusions here asap & from there...you can interpret them as you see fit.
Btw, be sure to keep putting your 2yos away for another day, the fewer there are around the fewer there are to beat.