Trigger isn't finished. i just don't see him winning races against the top 3 from Hunter Cup, MM etc anymore.
Of course he should qualify against the Victorian heat and get into the Final but can't see him beating CM, CB, TGA, Beautide, For a Reason, Smolda.
In my opinion why run in an ID for 5th place when you HAVE BEEN AN ABSOLUTE FANTASTIC CHAMP and in previous years you would have been favourite, not a current 20 or $30 chance because you are now 11 and deemed to have zip chance of winning. You do run in an ID and hope for 5th if you are Abettorpunt (of course u are also hoping to win, but 5th would also b amazing)
i only use ABP as an example cos he is on about the 10th line of betting so realistically as far as those odds go for a 10th fav to get 5th is a good result, as was his 4th in the Hunter, and in fact that was also a bit unlucky!
My fear for Trigger is to be kept running around as he is and not getting any closer than he is. Granted i totally did not know about his flat tyre this weekend but even with no flat tyre, how much closer would anyone say he would have been? Not enough to worry the top 3 i reckon.
Now this is an extreme example and i totally know it wouldn't happen with Trigger at all, but theres a trotter running around Globe Derby who was a top line NZ FFA horse and in fact won the Trotters ID Consolation at MOONEE VALLEY in 2009 and is still racing but for sometimes $3000 or $5000. in fact he has only won 3 of his last 30 starts at GD.
Sorry, but thats sad in my opinion.