Reply With QuoteMark..a fellow traveller!
My thoughts also involved the traditional 10 metre steps whereas it could be 15 metre with 3 metre margins..depending on Trials using the technology.
I would suspect that the starter would have much wider discretion.
Great post by Jason and he is definitely right about perceptionThe casual punter should be the focus of Harness Racing administrators as simpler betting options abound.
I can get $1.90 in a soccer bet..that's a two horse race (three to be precise with the Draw on a straight bet)...why take $1.40 in a 10 horse race?
Just a random observation from consecutive provincial races last night:
Lismore Dogs Race 3 Maiden 7 starters Fave $2.60 Total of 3 TAB WIN Pools at SKY fade out to start $23000 (NSW TAB $9887.55 Win $1572 Place $6900 Exotics)
Swan Hill Trots Race 1* 3YO Pace 10 starters Fave $1.80 Total of 3 TAB WIN pools at SKY fade out $25000 (NSW TAB $9827.00 Win $2950 Place $8700 Exotics)
Not a lot of difference at first sight but one has to appreciate the better Place pool for the Trots reflects the awarding of a Third Place Dividend whereas the dogs had NTD for 7 starters.
Looks pretty close BUT..and I know this is fraught with statistical error..just imagine(and I know its not the case) that the Total Tab Win Pool was distributed to the Sport on a per runner basis..that's $3285 per dog and $2500 per Pacer.
Lets call that the INTEREST FACTOR and I know its on a couple of random races but it confirms my general observation (and that of Jason) that Harness races are not attractive betting propositions, relatively speaking.
One line starts definitely give the perception that every horse has an even chance but those in the know realise that this isn't the case...but those in the know don't throw in the casual punting dollar.
Unless there is a total change in the Class system and rather than a strict snakes and ladders handicapping system a total discretionary handicapping system(probably based on ratings) comes into play then the One Line Mobile concept will be loaded with Odds On chance races.
It appears to me (and I may be mistaken) that Harness Racing administrators can't see that elephant in the room as they play their fiddles and wonder what's burning? (apologies for mixing idioms)
* Just as an aside..what a run by MURRANJI TRACK to storm home for second in that Swan Hill race in close to record time!
And that's how you have to speak as you see the punting dollar carved up.
Mark..a fellow traveller!
My thoughts also involved the traditional 10 metre steps whereas it could be 15 metre with 3 metre margins..depending on Trials using the technology.
I would suspect that the starter would have much wider discretion.
Originally Posted by waggamick
Did the favourites win Mick?
Lismore Dogs Favourite GO AHEAD PUNK WON $2.60 $1.60
Swan Hill Trots Favourite MORIAR INVICTUS Unplaced $1.80..winner awsd the very impressive RILEY JAMES..2nd Fave at $2.60
Now I am on your wavelength (excuse the pun)
I still believe Jason's point (in the stand start thread) about the perception of fairness in the eyes of the casual punter when every starter is off the front row, a la gallops and dogs, bears thinking about.
Devotees know that on many tracks you would much rather be inside the second row than outside fr row but devotees are already hooked
I see longer races as a catalyst for more action/mid race moves but the broadcasters want shorter races thus the popularity of the dogs
How do we get more even fields/even races = less odds on WITH an all fr start?
Preferential barriers is a start because as much as anyone perceives that all front allows you to determine you positon, any fool knows that the wider you are the more difficult this is
The gallopers have weight as their great leveller. I am not sure how much the casual punter takes it into account but it is what creates the evenness of their races and betting
They also have more racing and better class horses quite often don't waste their legs (gallopers tend to have far fewer races in them) in lower grade races for less $ compared to the way we tend to take them through their classes. It probably has to do with the way they are assessed to - I know even less about gallopers than I do about harness
I very much doubt weight is the answer and do not know how it was used in the past.
We certainly need to ensure star juveniles are not demolishing weaker class fields
More prize-money won restrictions/conditions of entry?
At the same time we have to remember that horses and therefore owners are just as much the lifeblood of our industry as punters and we have to give them a fair chance of return
ps Danno I take your point (elsewhere) about whether All Front racing in the past coincides with better turnover but if I was designing a future racing product to sell it has a beautiful purity in the eyes of the beholder
Greg Sugars was a Champion harness racing person
Kevin
Even the gallopers are having their problems with handicapping.
The compressed weight range they use now due to the minimum weight being 54Kg(I think) sees trainers still baulking at racing their horses at 60Kg or more and as a result a lower class horse might come to town in the old days on 48 KG and get 11 Kg from the 59KG topweight, the 'best' horse in the race, the best they can get now is 5Kg and as a result the fields in Metro races particularly in Sydney are becoming smaller and smaller.
Finding jockeys that can ride long term at the lower weights has forced the rise in minimum weights and explains the growth in numbers of female and Asian jockeys in Australia.
Gallopers use Ratings and or Bench Mark Handicapping:
BPaH differs in a number of important ways from the
systems of other Australian States, which generally
operate Ratings based handicapping models.
Benchmark handicapping makes a merit assessment of
individual race performances, mathematically analysing
numerous race variables to form a fact-based view on the
current racing ability of each horse. In contrast Ratings
rely on traditional handicapping without the benefit of
independent analyst data.
Benchmark racing opens the top of the weight scale to
include more horses by allowing the nomination of horses
‘above the Benchmark’, while Ratings races restrict entry
only to horses assessed below the standard set.
Across NSW, Benchmark races are programmed in 5-point
graduations (Benchmark 45, Benchmark 50, Benchmark
55, Benchmark 60, Benchmark 65 and so on), effectively
sorting the NSW racing population into well-handicapped
contests that are 2.5kg apart in merit.
The Benchmark assigned to each horse is set on a single
line scale with each benchmark point equating to 0.5kg in
handicap weight.
Sorry about breaking up the post but the next bit is important:
Once published by
Racing NSW
, a horse’s Benchmark
indicates the weight it will carry at its next start relative to
every other NSW horse.
The 3 Stage BPaH Process
The 3 stage merit based Benchmark assessment process
begins with a mathematical (computer-based) calculation
from proprietary software developed by Racing & Sports
Pty Ltd under contract to
Racing NSW
.
The computation takes into account an exhaustive list
of relevant factors such as population averages over
multiple years, race quality, recent and historical individual
performances, age and sex allowances, head-to-head
comparisons, form cycle, track grading and race conditions.
The computer ranking is then internally reviewed by
experienced Racing & Sports form analysts who then
provide
Racing NSW
a recommendation within 48 hours of
each horse running.
Finally, the Racing NSW Handicapping Panel reviews
the background to the recommendation, the race film
and other race data then determines and publishes the
updated Benchmark figure for each horse.
The movement of a horse’s published Benchmark openly
shows industry participants the handicappers’ assessment
of performance merit from one race start to the next.
The whole document is 26 pages and is an interesting read:http://www.racingnsw.com.au/site/_co...791-source.pdf
Last edited by teecee; 02-11-2015 at 04:02 PM.
5/5 odds on faves at Kilmore so far this arvo and all have won
Greg Sugars was a Champion harness racing person
I did notice the programme is an R meeting, have heard a few races but not looked at the fields or any conditions, so hard to comment on today Kev. But something does need to be done with a lot of these programmes. E.g. quite a lot of the time quality horses are running instead of trialling and the number of times the better performed horse gains a run as emergency with a good draw....I guess HRV might think if the emergency is given the worst draw they'd scratch?
HRV have run a very small number of R races for trainer's with a B licence, assuming this might encourage increased participation. This could be explored further, even limited to B grade drivers.
Last edited by arlington; 02-11-2015 at 07:16 PM.
Are there any Bookmakers left at the trots?
One fields at Canberra Trots...the same One that does the Canberra dogs.
Bendigo had 2 bookmakers on Cup night.
Posting Permissions