Odds On Favourites under the VIC tiered system 2016-17

[Danno]

There were a lot more in it when they were running 2:08!

ha ha, my first winner ran a standing mile in 2.14 ( on a 500 metre track) and won by twenty metres,in 1975, my slowest winner (in 1978) won what would be a C6 race in todays classifications over a 2400 metres on an 800 metre track in 2.25!!!. My fastest was at Menangle a couple of tears ago in 1.54.7.

The horses are going faster and faster as the breed develops, and while the two are completely unrelated, it would be good if participation was still growing in the same manner as the Standardbred's advancement.

[aussiebreno]

Great discussion tonight everyone. Richard, I'll respond to your points if I may.


You are correct that the HRV strategy is about ensuring we give everyone and every horse a chance to be a part of our industry. We have implemented a number of initiatives that demonstrate our desire to retain existing trainers, drivers, owners and horses, in what are clearly challenging times for our industry. As explained at the public forums in 2017, we need all levels of our industry for it to be successful.


Some of our measures of success relate to the level of horse participation (up 3% over the last 12 months), the number of races (up 4% over the last 12 months - which equates to 109 more winners of a race than the prior 12 months), turnover generated (up approx 10% over the last 12 months) and ultimately profitability of our industry that will enable us to better support participants and clubs into the future. Beyond that, we have flagged our desire to start work on the infrastructure needed to retain and attract the next generation of participants. There's some big challenges within all of that, not the least being the multi-year decline in foal numbers that is being discussed on another social media platform.


I understand Anne's frustration, but in comparison to both gallops and dogs, harness racing has too many short priced favourites. If a PBD approach can help to reduce that and level the playing field, then we must explore that.


Cheers, David

PBD to level the playing field is a fallacy. If something is head and shoulders above them it will still be odds on. Stop trying to artificially even fields up. PBD just keeps shorter priced faves down in grade a bit longer creating more races with shorter priced faves. Let the better horses have RBD and they can race through the grades quicker and stop being at such short prices quicker. It will also open up the lower class races because the good ones wont spend as much starts in them.

[Bonnie]

PBD to level the playing field is a fallacy. If something is head and shoulders above them it will still be odds on. Stop trying to artificially even fields up. PBD just keeps shorter priced faves down in grade a bit longer creating more races with shorter priced faves. Let the better horses have RBD and they can race through the grades quicker and stop being at such short prices quicker. It will also open up the lower class races because the good ones wont spend as much starts in them.

The most common sense approach I have heard in a long time , you have said everything I was trying to say in a few short sentences . Well said Breno!

[gutwagon]

David, you said "We have implemented a number of initiatives that demonstrate our desire to retain existing trainers, drivers, owners and horses."
I noticed you left out breeders and breeders have been ignored for many years in our industry. As a result foal numbers have dropped every year for the last 20 or so.
I lost my mare and foal this season, I was planing on breeding one foal per season. Breeding involves many risks including, mares not getting in foal, foals dying, both mare and foal dying. I should be looking for a replacement broodmare but I really don't see any incentives for people to breed horses. Besides the $7000 Vicbred bonus there really isn't much on offer to encourage people to breed horses.
Do you have any incentives in the pipeline ? Can you convince me to get back into the breeding industry ?

Service fees, agistment, vet bills, training fees, feed, transport costs all increasing . The 3 tiered prizemoney means a big cut in prizemoney unless you get a very good horse. Integrity issues are at an all time high with many participants not believing there is a level playing field. These are just some of the issues people thinking of entering the breeding game must face.

Some things I would like to see would be the $7k vicbred bonus going to the breeder not the owner.
A bonus going to the breeder every time one of their horses wins a race. Not just Vicbred races.
More races offering a free service to a decent stallion as a trophy.
Mares getting breeding credits for each race they win to be used towards service fee discounts as some other states have.
Taking Vicbed eligibility back to both mare and stallion being Victorian based.
.

[David Martin]

PBD to level the playing field is a fallacy. If something is head and shoulders above them it will still be odds on. Stop trying to artificially even fields up. PBD just keeps shorter priced faves down in grade a bit longer creating more races with shorter priced faves. Let the better horses have RBD and they can race through the grades quicker and stop being at such short prices quicker. It will also open up the lower class races because the good ones wont spend as much starts in them.

Hi Brendan, thanks for your input.

The basis for the decision to trial PBD for a month is as follows: In November 2015 HRV conducted a one-month trial of preferential barrier draws for all races in a bid to reduce the number of short-priced favourites and create a more attractive wagering product. The results indicated there was a substantial reduction in the number of odds-on favourites in races, and favourites winning. Further analysis of average turnover per race by barrier draw type across the entire 2016/2017 season reveals PBDs, on average, generate higher turnover than random barrier draws. Likewise, the starting price of favourites across 2016/2017 were shorter for random draws than PBDs. hence, the trial will run for one month (July), however feature events which have already been advertised will remain random draws.

Cheers, David

[aussiebreno]

Hi Brendan, thanks for your input.

The basis for the decision to trial PBD for a month is as follows: In November 2015 HRV conducted a one-month trial of preferential barrier draws for all races in a bid to reduce the number of short-priced favourites and create a more attractive wagering product. The results indicated there was a substantial reduction in the number of odds-on favourites in races, and favourites winning. Further analysis of average turnover per race by barrier draw type across the entire 2016/2017 season reveals PBDs, on average, generate higher turnover than random barrier draws. Likewise, the starting price of favourites across 2016/2017 were shorter for random draws than PBDs. hence, the trial will run for one month (July), however feature events which have already been advertised will remain random draws.

Cheers, David

No doubt PBD enhances that sole races turnover. Its what it does to future races turnover is the problem.

What is the mean odds of a horse the next two starts following a C0 or C1 win when it was odds on?
What is the mean odds of a horse the next two starts following a C0 or C1 loss when it was odds on?

If the odds are higher in Answer 1 than Answer 2 we should be doing what we can to make odds on horses win their C0 or C1, which means quit making it harder for them by PBD!

What are the mean odds of a horse the next two starts following beating an odds on pop in a C0 or C1?
What are the mean odds of a horse the next two starts after being beaten by an odds on pop in a C0 or C1?

When an outsider gets gifted a good draw and wins in PBD they can find themselves outclassed ahead of their time up in grade. Not a good betting proposition and leads to less competitive racing in the higher class, producing more odds on favourites.

[David Martin]

No doubt PBD enhances that sole races turnover. Its what it does to future races turnover is the problem.

What is the mean odds of a horse the next two starts following a C0 or C1 win when it was odds on?
What is the mean odds of a horse the next two starts following a C0 or C1 loss when it was odds on?

If the odds are higher in Answer 1 than Answer 2 we should be doing what we can to make odds on horses win their C0 or C1, which means quit making it harder for them by PBD!

What are the mean odds of a horse the next two starts following beating an odds on pop in a C0 or C1?
What are the mean odds of a horse the next two starts after being beaten by an odds on pop in a C0 or C1?

When an outsider gets gifted a good draw and wins in PBD they can find themselves outclassed ahead of their time up in grade. Not a good betting proposition and leads to less competitive racing in the higher class, producing more odds on favourites.

Hi Brendan,


The data I provided was for Nov 2015 which would have included multiple runs for odds on horses, and similarly for the PBD data over twelve months for 2016-17. In short, there are less odds on favourites and those that are, get beaten more often. Most people on this forum and others, would be very happy with that outcome. Your suggestions that we should just let short-priced favourites win and not allow outsiders to win in order to retain them in a lower grade, is the opposite of what the industry wants and needs. Most people want an even playing field and a chance for their horse to win a race. We can't keep giving gifted horses a free kick.


Cheers, David

[David Martin]

David, you said "We have implemented a number of initiatives that demonstrate our desire to retain existing trainers, drivers, owners and horses."
I noticed you left out breeders and breeders have been ignored for many years in our industry. As a result foal numbers have dropped every year for the last 20 or so.
I lost my mare and foal this season, I was planing on breeding one foal per season. Breeding involves many risks including, mares not getting in foal, foals dying, both mare and foal dying. I should be looking for a replacement broodmare but I really don't see any incentives for people to breed horses. Besides the $7000 Vicbred bonus there really isn't much on offer to encourage people to breed horses.
Do you have any incentives in the pipeline ? Can you convince me to get back into the breeding industry ?

Service fees, agistment, vet bills, training fees, feed, transport costs all increasing . The 3 tiered prizemoney means a big cut in prizemoney unless you get a very good horse. Integrity issues are at an all time high with many participants not believing there is a level playing field. These are just some of the issues people thinking of entering the breeding game must face.

Some things I would like to see would be the $7k vicbred bonus going to the breeder not the owner.
A bonus going to the breeder every time one of their horses wins a race. Not just Vicbred races.
More races offering a free service to a decent stallion as a trophy.
Mares getting breeding credits for each race they win to be used towards service fee discounts as some other states have.
Taking Vicbed eligibility back to both mare and stallion being Victorian based.
.

Hi Rick,


I am truly sorry to hear about the loss of your mare and foal this season. Terrible news. As you say, it's a costly industry and there needs to be an incentive for you and others to participate. I acknowledge that due to our poor financial position, we haven't been able to do a lot for breeders in the last 14 months. We did waive the $89 DNA fee, we absorbed the cost of microchipping and following a submission from HBV we increased the number of VicBred conditioned races. But there's so much more we wanted to do, but simply couldn't afford. e.g. we would have liked to reduce foal registration costs and/or expand sires stakes programs, etc., but our financial situation was poor and these things weren't possible.


We have been in regular discussions with HBV and others, and have recently received more suggestions from HBV as part of our 2018-19 budget process. I am happy to consider your suggestions as part of that process.


Thanks again, David

[Messenger]

I sometimes wonder whether PB draws really hurt the chances of horses seen to be a class above their opposition and consequently sent out long odds-on
In a field of 9 which is about all we see nowadays - how many 'bad' barriers are there anyway

I see the effect of PBD's as more a case of making some slim chances look a little more attractive and somewhat a snake oil sold to punters

I am only referring to when there is a class standout in a race - not all those times when we have ridiculous odds on faves - half of whom get beat

[arlington]

R10 Kilmore tonight a $7k C0 only a field of 6 !!!!
Did the 3yo's scare them off ????
The small field were ALL 3yo's

http://www.harness.org.au/racing/fie...ic#KIC17041804

Yep