Odds-on favourites stats in Vic

[aussiebreno]

Fortunately for racing Brenno most owners and breeders have a more colourful view of their involvement then a profit and loss sheet at the office and the dollars won/lost on the punt. Sure there are often only a few genuine winning chances in a race but I think we've already established that racing doesn't always go to script. Whilst I'd envisage a very significant differential in prizemoney between tiers it would be possible for an unplaced runner in the higher tier to earn less then the winner of another tier, happens in consolations now doesn't it? But does every grade cricket player long to play on some suburban ground every weekend and score a ton or do they think of representing their state, and dream of a baggy green, or coloured clothing, rock music and fireworks on the sideline these days, even though their chance of scoring a duck has increased exponentially?

Covering costs and rate of return is in owners minds Brenno but those could never solely be first thing in the minds of all owners for there could be no racing if they were. Don't know if there are figures for Australia but from the U.S. gallops investment in the breeding industry runs at 2.5 times the available prizemoney, and training fees haven't been factored in yet.

Your right though, nobodies rankings are perfect, but what is it they say about all publicity is good publicity, a little controversy in the rankings wouldn't go astray. Or perhaps you'd find it more appealing to assign rankings purely on dollars earned, black and white, no controversy there. Having been a trainer on a communal training centre for twenty years let me tell you regardless of what you do trainers will find something to complain about, they always do.

Not sure your last sentence makes sense, presumably the top tier at the semis would predominately have already won their first win bonus and not eligible to contest 2A0 races that the also rans from the heats that haven't won their first win bonus are.

No trainers/owners long term view is going to be "yeah we are targeting the bronze series in 6 months, cant wait!"
Those third grade cricketers may aspire to play at the MCG but they simply arent performing to that level so play at a suburban grounds for no $$. If you arent up to the standard you miss out like the bottom half of the ladder miss finals in footy. No consolation prizes.
Ranking on prizemoney would only lead to 2yo babies having more starts, a lot of which will then press on to the ABC. A lot of trainers want to look after their 2yos.
The chance to compete in 2C0 races is primetime in the next couple weeks for the horses you would put in silver/bronze.

[Dot]

No trainers/owners long term view is going to be "yeah we are targeting the bronze series in 6 months, cant wait!"
Those third grade cricketers may aspire to play at the MCG but they simply arent performing to that level so play at a suburban grounds for no $$. If you arent up to the standard you miss out like the bottom half of the ladder miss finals in footy. No consolation prizes.
Ranking on prizemoney would only lead to 2yo babies having more starts, a lot of which will then press on to the ABC. A lot of trainers want to look after their 2yos.
The chance to compete in 2C0 races is primetime in the next couple weeks for the horses you would put in silver/bronze.

Actually Brenno Kevs posts here with regard to $3500 restricted races led to a clear statement from David Martin that there is a subset of trainers/participants who are in favour of races at this level. How do you know that they would not also be supportive of a low prizemoney series resulting in a Vicbred trophy albeit a bronze one on the mantle piece?

So are you suggesting no one ever start their horse in a race at long odds as they clearly aren't up to the standard of the favourites and should confine themselves to running around on the training track for no dollars? That the third grade Cricketer sitting in the stands at the MCG should ignore the call up to make up the fielding numbers in the event of injuries because he's not up to it and has no prospect of being paid for his time on the field?

Of course most owners/trainers at least want to look after their babies, many actually all their horses, I do, over racing is a drawback in a prizemoney eligibility system, though doesn't appear to have been too much of a negative for the jewels and many stakes events in the U.S., or the Magic Millions. I'm sure many trainers would weigh up the accumulating effects on the horse of earning prizemoney to be eligible against the probability of earning some in the main event with a tired horse. As you said there is no perfect ranking system but perhaps there is an optimal one.

As it stands Brenno with only 3 colts heats in particular most of the colts will be engaged in the semi finals now anyway, I don't think they can scratch without a penalty to contest maiden races though perhaps they can be withdrawn before acceptances to contest maiden races instead. I don't see how you view a silver/bronze series over two starts as an impost on a 2yos ability to contest maiden races, at bronze level these races could actually be at near maiden status.

I'm interested Brenno in how you would propose to increase participation rates in the Vicbred Schemes premier event, or if in fact you would consider that a desirable occurrence? And by what means, beyond having the punters rely on their own recognisance, Would you try to create better wagering outcomes for punters and industry alike from the series?

[Messenger]

On the issue of heats and semi's - if there are not more than 4 heats IMO we should not need semi's

[aussiebreno]

Actually Brenno Kevs posts here with regard to $3500 restricted races led to a clear statement from David Martin that there is a subset of trainers/participants who are in favour of races at this level. How do you know that they would not also be supportive of a low prizemoney series resulting in a Vicbred trophy albeit a bronze one on the mantle piece?

So are you suggesting no one ever start their horse in a race at long odds as they clearly aren't up to the standard of the favourites and should confine themselves to running around on the training track for no dollars? That the third grade Cricketer sitting in the stands at the MCG should ignore the call up to make up the fielding numbers in the event of injuries because he's not up to it and has no prospect of being paid for his time on the field?

Of course most owners/trainers at least want to look after their babies, many actually all their horses, I do, over racing is a drawback in a prizemoney eligibility system, though doesn't appear to have been too much of a negative for the jewels and many stakes events in the U.S., or the Magic Millions. I'm sure many trainers would weigh up the accumulating effects on the horse of earning prizemoney to be eligible against the probability of earning some in the main event with a tired horse. As you said there is no perfect ranking system but perhaps there is an optimal one.

As it stands Brenno with only 3 colts heats in particular most of the colts will be engaged in the semi finals now anyway, I don't think they can scratch without a penalty to contest maiden races though perhaps they can be withdrawn before acceptances to contest maiden races instead. I don't see how you view a silver/bronze series over two starts as an impost on a 2yos ability to contest maiden races, at bronze level these races could actually be at near maiden status.

I'm interested Brenno in how you would propose to increase participation rates in the Vicbred Schemes premier event, or if in fact you would consider that a desirable occurrence? And by what means, beyond having the punters rely on their own recognisance, Would you try to create better wagering outcomes for punters and industry alike from the series?

$3500 races on random days of the week are a different kettle to fish to messing with the format of one of the few showcase meetings we have each year. The heats and semis provide an important lead up and get the right horses in to the final. The semi final cards themselves are one of the meetings each year where you ensure you don't accept an invitation to a relatives kids birthday party in order to stay home and watch Sky. Can't say I'd care if I missed the Bronze meeting.
The point of the heats is to get the 'rankings' correct and let the better ones earn their way to the semis. Plenty of horses who would have been ranked Bronze going into the heats have made their way to the big dance and run well over the years. The series always provides a few bolters and a feel good story.
I'm suggesting the long odds should give it a crack as they do now and start in the heats and do try to make it to the MCG, rather than going to your suburban/Bronze ground.
If your aim is participation, how much participation is in the Jewels and Magic Millions? Less than the Vicbred I can assure you.
The top end of town isn't so much about participation but showcasing the premier event. Not every horse is made out for Group1 races but I fully endorse they participate at a Country level. I can watch ordinary horses go around every day of the week, there is only so many feature meetings so lets not ruin them, after all its the showcase meetings that are more likely to get new fans involved.

[aussiebreno]

If they were $500K finals and no Vicbred bonuses sure something may need to be done about that, but they are $100K finals and there are Vicbred bonuses so its not as if the masses are missing out.

[Dot]

On the issue of heats and semi's - if there are not more than 4 heats IMO we should not need semi's

31 in 4yo mares 3 heats 34 in 4yo E&Gs 3 heats.

2.68% reduction in pacing mares served in Vic last season.

[Messenger]

A bit late with the weekly update but I have been in Melbourne
It has been a big week for odds on faves

3½ weeks down

90 Different trainers have supplied our odds on faves for the month so far
with Emma Stewart supplying 16 of them followed by Kerryn Manning with 9

299 races
165 Odds On Favs = 55%

104 have won so Success Rate = 63%

[arlington]

A bit late with the weekly update but I have been in Melbourne
It has been a big week for odds on faves

3½ weeks down

90 Different trainers have supplied our odds on faves for the month so far
with Emma Stewart supplying 16 of them followed by Kerryn Manning with 9

299 races
165 Odds On Favs = 55%

104 have won so Success Rate = 63%

As advised in the April/May Harness Racer Harness Racing Victoria (HRV) will trial a month of preferential barrier draws (PBDs) during July.
With the exception of races conducted as part of a futurity series or programmed feature list races that have been previously advertised as random barrier draw events, all other events will be run as PBD races.

[Messenger]

We come to the end of June
Exactly 100 different trainers had an Odds On pop for the month

There were 370 races for the month
207 had an Odds On fav = 56%

126 won so the Success Rate = 61%

Emma Stewart supplied 26 of them with 18 of hers winning (69%)
Kerryn Manning was the next most with 10 and 60% winning

The best strike rate with Odds On pops was Gavin Lang with 5/5 = 100%

[Messenger]

I thought I had better work out what the average Odds On pop was for June to see if July's preferential draws make a diff
June Odds On average price = $1.43