Odds-on favourites stats in Vic

[Dot]

I'm sure winningest barriers Kev are a rough guide at best. A better guide would relate to field position, front end speed holds up better these days then ever before and I've no doubt that horses positioned in the front half of the field take the lions share of the spoils the majority of the time.

Whilst the trend for short priced favourites in your sample appears promising Kev, I've little doubt it will be accompanied by an equally unfavourable trend of reduction in field size. Trainers as a rule want to place their horse where they have the best opportunity to win. A program of solely PBD races on dollars in however many last starts allows trainers to calculate their likely starting position before the fields are finalised and withdraw if they feel their chances will be negatively impacted by their likely position in the draw.

Winning a race under these conditions also sees connections likely doubly penalised in their next start, going up a grade for winning, and almost certainly being drawn badly as well.

[Messenger]

July update (fini of 24/7)

259 races
131 odds on favs = 50.6%
83 won = 63.4% success rate

The percentage of Odds on Pops has jumped a bit this week to be 50.6 for the month
While the week saw many of them successful - improving the success rate to 63.4% so far this month

[Messenger]

We come to the end of July

There were 340 races for the month
178 had an Odds On fav = 52%

111 won so the Success Rate = 62%

So compared to June the % of Odds On faves dropped by 4% (56 down to 52)

July's average Odds On price was $1.48 so it has gone out by 5c ($1.43 to $1.48)

That was the first month of the PBD trial

For the 2 months I have recorded, the lady trainers are still out in front when it comes to supplying Odds On faves
Emma Stewart has now supplied 42 with 30 of them successful (71%)
Kerryn Manning still has the next most with 17 and 12 winning (71%)

but Andy Gath was the big mover of the month
He has now had 16 odds on pops with 12 winning (75%)

The Terang crew have only been going so so with favourites in the red
Marg Lee has only had 4 of her 11 win
while Matty Craven has only had 5 of his 10 win

No track has stood out as having more than the average number of Odds On pops

[Toohard]

We come to the end of July

There were 340 races for the month
178 had an Odds On fav = 52%

111 won so the Success Rate = 62%

So compared to June the % of Odds On faves dropped by 4% (56 down to 52)

July's average Odds On price was $1.48 so it has gone out by 5c ($1.43 to $1.48)

That was the first month of the PBD trial

For the 2 months I have recorded, the lady trainers are still out in front when it comes to supplying Odds On faves
Emma Stewart has now supplied 42 with 30 of them successful (71%)
Kerryn Manning still has the next most with 17 and 12 winning (71%)

but Andy Gath was the big mover of the month
He has now had 16 odds on pops with 12 winning (75%)

The Terang crew have only been going so so with favourites in the red
Marg Lee has only had 4 of her 11 win
while Matty Craven has only had 5 of his 10 win

No track has stood out as having more than the average number of Odds On pops

We should open betfair accounts and start laying the odds on favs NOT trained by Emma, Kerryn and Andy? Not going to lose a lot laying odds on favourites..

[Messenger]

We should open betfair accounts and start laying the odds on favs NOT trained by Emma, Kerryn and Andy? Not going to lose a lot laying odds on favourites..

Too hard

[Amlin]

We should open betfair accounts and start laying the odds on favs NOT trained by Emma, Kerryn and Andy? Not going to lose a lot laying odds on favourites..

Or have $100 on the nose on every odds on fav. Better than bank interest!

[Messenger]

Interesting Kyle.
Rounding out the success rate to 60% ie 6/10
at the average of the 2 months $1.45
= 6 x $45 profit - 4 x $100 = 270 - 400
So we would be losing $130 every 10 odds on pops (interesting $130 every $1,000 = pretty much TAB takeout, whose odds I have been using)

Of course we may get better odds on Betfair and I didn't actually work out the average price of WINNING odds on pops but I would imagine it to be similar (I don't really want to do the extra calculations on my spreadsheet - not so simple as I did not put winners and losers prices in separate columns, I only colour coded them and entered W/L ratio at the bottom of each meet's column)

[Toohard]

Too hard

Haha!!
Check my maths
Take Emma, Kerryn & Andy out
Reduces win percentage to 45%
Avg price 1.50 = 1/2
Lay each to lose $100
You 'lose' 45% = $4500
You 'win' 55% = $11000
Net gain $6500* ??!

[gutwagon]

Thanks for all the time and effort you put into supplying this data Kevin. It is appreciated.

[Messenger]

Week 1 of August

78 races
42 odds on favs = 54%
23 won = 55% success rate

In race 3 at Ballarat tonight we had the unusual occurrence of 2 Odds On Pops in the same race (only 1 was fave and is therefore counted in the above stats)

http://www.harness.org.au/racing/fie...ic#BAC07081806