Industry Indicators - Good, Bad & Ugly

[Dot]

Thanks David, it appears that I cant reopen the link to the press release, however I'm quite certain it said the intent was to provide more money for the "battlers". Will these $4000 races have restrictions on which trainers may nominate for these races? Particularly in light of the often already small field sizes? Have you considered that at $4000 more trainers, who aren't considered battlers by ordinary standards may nominate to take advantage of the penalty free conditions? Will the increase in volume of R class races correspond with a reduction in available C class races effectively forcing their hand?

Whilst this next comment pertains to WA I can't imagine the sentiment is any different in Victoria. The biggest concern amongst trainers here who patronise the equivalent R class racing, known as community race meetings, is not the level of stakesmoney that they are racing for, but that Bondy and Hally DONT drive in the gate with a truckload of horses each.

[David Martin]

Hi Dot, the media release referred to putting 'more money in the pockets of people in our industry who really need it', which might be interpreted as 'battlers', but most trainers really need more money and most stables will have a horse that needs to compete at this level at some point in time. We are mindful of the concern you mention and use a variety of conditions on races to provide as much as opportunity as possible for all horses and trainers. That can be difficult at times given the current National handicapping/programming system, which is why HRV and other states are working towards a new model. Cheers, David

[Amlin]

While we can't really market the current base stakemoney as an attractive investment to prospective owners perhaps we could market potential return on investment.

If you went to the trotting sales and bought a yearling for $7500 today you have the chance to race for $75,000 if good enough.

Just saw an ad on racing.com where a thoroughbred yearling is being syndicated for $650,000. Assuming that was close to purchase price (naive I know), based on racing for ten times the amount they would have to aim for a start in the Melbourne Cup or the Everest.

Would rather spend $5000 on a cheapy at the sales and pick up a few $7000 races in the country than race for $20,000 in a gallops maiden with a $300,000 purchase.

[Dot]

Nice in theory Kyle but how long do you think there will be cheapys to pick up at the sale for $5000 when in all likelihood it has cost the breeder twice if not three times that amount at least to produce them? With only around 50% of horses bred starting in a race your roughly 50/50 of getting to the races ( actually a little better because your horse is not one of the ones lost to racing in between being born and going through the sale as a cheapy, or perhaps it's is less then 50% of getting to the races and that's why it was a cheapy at the sales.) Given the number of horses that drop out of racing after a handful of starts your chances of picking up a couple of 7000k races in the country aren't looking too flash, particularly seeings David hasn't committed to how many of those will be programmed as opposed to 5000k and 4000k races.

And at 4000k races I don't think we can win people over to us on the basis of we race more frequently, take 5 starts to match the country gallopers 20k, which I thought now was min $25k ( that might be NSW) or four in $5k races, but hey win 3 7k races we might be ahead. Training and racing costs may be less for us but I don't think they are 20 to 33 % of all TB trainers fees so maybe not.

But yes your scenario certainly beats racing a $300k purchase in a 20k race. But as one young harness trainer wrote on Twitter it's really hard to ask your friends to go shares with you in a standardbred yearling when you know it's 50% not to even make it to the trials.

[gutwagon]

Michael Stanley tweeted this a few weeks ago, "I pay my worker as he should but unfortunately for me due to that I ended up earning less than he did for the year".
He is a very successful trainer and he still doesn't make a decent wage from the industry !

[Amlin]

Nice in theory Kyle but how long do you think there will be cheapys to pick up at the sale for $5000 when in all likelihood it has cost the breeder twice if not three times that amount at least to produce them? With only around 50% of horses bred starting in a race your roughly 50/50 of getting to the races ( actually a little better because your horse is not one of the ones lost to racing in between being born and going through the sale as a cheapy, or perhaps it's is less then 50% of getting to the races and that's why it was a cheapy at the sales.) Given the number of horses that drop out of racing after a handful of starts your chances of picking up a couple of 7000k races in the country aren't looking too flash, particularly seeings David hasn't committed to how many of those will be programmed as opposed to 5000k and 4000k races.

And at 4000k races I don't think we can win people over to us on the basis of we race more frequently, take 5 starts to match the country gallopers 20k, which I thought now was min $25k ( that might be NSW) or four in $5k races, but hey win 3 7k races we might be ahead. Training and racing costs may be less for us but I don't think they are 20 to 33 % of all TB trainers fees so maybe not.

But yes your scenario certainly beats racing a $300k purchase in a 20k race. But as one young harness trainer wrote on Twitter it's really hard to ask your friends to go shares with you in a standardbred yearling when you know it's 50% not to even make it to the trials.

Handicapping clearly has to be changed...especially if horses are dropping out of the system after a couple of runs. With one meeting a week dropped in SA due to low numbers, and less than 40 horses at one Vic meet last week it is a national issue, so for the sake of a strong industry nationally why is this not being finalised, and who is holding it up? Certainly numerous punters and horsepeople on Twitter can see the problem.

[Messenger]

Michael Stanley tweeted this a few weeks ago, "I pay my worker as he should but unfortunately for me due to that I ended up earning less than he did for the year".
He is a very successful trainer and he still doesn't make a decent wage from the industry !

And this is half our 'Integrity' problem too.
People having to be 'creative' to survive financially
We also no doubt have some who think they are entitled to make it their profession - not part time job/hobby, when their results and supporters are not strong enough

[Dot]

Oops my bad in an earlier post wrote 4000k races instead of 4k races, but heck I wish they were 4000k races!!!

There has been progress on a new handicapping system in WA Kyle, and NSW have increasing elements of one in place. Have to say I've seen nothing from HRV and HRA that amounts to progress on that score. Those not to get to the races and dropout figures were from somewhere official and they said it was being looked into but I don't recall where.

As for HRA they can move quickly when they want, ( yes pun intended) look at the whip debacle, but for the rest it seems a snails pace will suffice. 4 years ago they banned pulling cords, a month later they rescinded the ban and said they would review the issue, 4 years later I still haven't seen the results of the review. I'm not holding my breath on a new handicapping system from them.

To me it seems that HRV is also stuck in inertia in this regard. Effectively Victoria has 2 "island" horse populations that they could trial change on but nothing has happened. Mildura which has a large horses population supplemented to a small degree by outsiders, and around Cranbourne which has a small population and requires large amounts of additional horses for quality meetings.

Ordinarily Kyle I would say that trainers shouldn't sacrifice there ability to place horses to advantage but in Cranbourne/warraguls case it is certainly worth considering and likely worth a try. I can say that during EI in Sydney in 2009 I think it was the "island" population of horses at Bankstown was able to stage 3 meetings with not maximum fields but compeditive racing and reasonable sized fields using every horse available to race in the Bankstown precinct in fields drawn up by the NSW chief handicapper before the virus claimed us too and we were forced to shut down.

[Messenger]

Only 6 races at Ballarat tonight
Surprising a $7k C0 and a $7k C1 did not hold up

[David Martin]

Only 6 races at Ballarat tonight
Surprising a $7k C0 and a $7k C1 did not hold up

And then 22 races on Friday...