Originally Posted by
Dot
Nice in theory Kyle but how long do you think there will be cheapys to pick up at the sale for $5000 when in all likelihood it has cost the breeder twice if not three times that amount at least to produce them? With only around 50% of horses bred starting in a race your roughly 50/50 of getting to the races ( actually a little better because your horse is not one of the ones lost to racing in between being born and going through the sale as a cheapy, or perhaps it's is less then 50% of getting to the races and that's why it was a cheapy at the sales.) Given the number of horses that drop out of racing after a handful of starts your chances of picking up a couple of 7000k races in the country aren't looking too flash, particularly seeings David hasn't committed to how many of those will be programmed as opposed to 5000k and 4000k races.
And at 4000k races I don't think we can win people over to us on the basis of we race more frequently, take 5 starts to match the country gallopers 20k, which I thought now was min $25k ( that might be NSW) or four in $5k races, but hey win 3 7k races we might be ahead. Training and racing costs may be less for us but I don't think they are 20 to 33 % of all TB trainers fees so maybe not.
But yes your scenario certainly beats racing a $300k purchase in a 20k race. But as one young harness trainer wrote on Twitter it's really hard to ask your friends to go shares with you in a standardbred yearling when you know it's 50% not to even make it to the trials.