Miracle Mile 2022

[Messenger]

The Miracle Mile has been run at Menangle since 2009. I thought I would look at the barrier stats.
But where do you find them?!
Online Results only go back to 2012 so I needed YouTube to fill in the gaps - poor quality video I'm afraid but the whip use still stands out in some. (We may as well get rid of them now as there is no way they will acceptable in the future)

It was a bit of a chore to research this as you have to do a horse search for each winner, look up their performance record to get the MM date, then look up that date in results. (Horse Performance links to the races do not include barriers)
Having gone to this trouble I thought I may as well include where they settled in the run (in brackets)

You would think that this should already be recorded somewhere (I probably should have asked if anybody knew where first LOL)

2009 Monkey King - ? (4)
2010 Smoken Up - 4 (2)
2011 Smoken Up - 1 (L)
2012 not held
2013 Baby Bling - 2 (5)
2013 Beautide - 4 (5)
2014 Christen Me - 4 (6)
2015 not held
2016 Have Faith In Me - 5 (6)
2017 Lennytheshark - 5 (2)
2018 My Field Marshal - 3 (6)
2019 Spankem - 6 (L)
2020 King Of Swing - 3 (L)
2021 King Of Swing - 5 (L)

I have always thought that the horses that settle 7 and 8 have no chance and this confirms it.
Why not have a field of 6?
Spankem is the only horse to win from wider than 5 and he did it by leading
Terror To Love (2013 MM) is the only horse drawn wider than 6 and to settle further back than 6 to place
History (albeit short) is suggesting Bondi and Eclipse have no chance

Here are the links to the race results for 2013 - 2021

http://www.harness.org.au/racing/fie...13#MEM28041301

http://www.harness.org.au/racing/fie...13#PCM30111301

http://www.harness.org.au/racing/fie...14#PCM29111401

http://www.harness.org.au/racing/fie...16#PCM28021601

http://www.harness.org.au/racing/fie...17#PCM25021701

http://www.harness.org.au/racing/fie...18#PCM24021801

http://www.harness.org.au/racing/fie...19#PCM02031905

http://www.harness.org.au/racing/fie...20#PCM07032001

http://www.harness.org.au/racing/fie...21#PCM06032101

These are the links to the Monkey King and Smoken Up wins from their performance records (but no barrier positions)

http://www.harness.org.au/ausbreed/r...de=XMM29110901

http://www.harness.org.au/ausbreed/r...de=XMM27111001

http://www.harness.org.au/ausbreed/r...de=MEM26111101

[aussiebreno]

The Miracle Mile has been run at Menangle since 2009. I thought I would look at the barrier stats.
But where do you find them?!
Online Results only go back to 2012 so I needed YouTube to fill in the gaps - poor quality video I'm afraid but the whip use still stands out in some. (We may as well get rid of them now as there is no way they will acceptable in the future)

It was a bit of a chore to research this as you have to do a horse search for each winner, look up their performance record to get the MM date, then look up that date in results. (Horse Performance links to the races do not include barriers)
Having gone to this trouble I thought I may as well include where they settled in the run (in brackets)

You would think that this should already be recorded somewhere (I probably should have asked if anybody knew where first LOL)

2009 Monkey King - ? (4)
2010 Smoken Up - 4 (2)
2011 Smoken Up - 1 (L)
2012 not held
2013 Baby Bling - 2 (5)
2013 Beautide - 4 (5)
2014 Christen Me - 4 (6)
2015 not held
2016 Have Faith In Me - 5 (6)
2017 Lennytheshark - 5 (2)
2018 My Field Marshal - 3 (6)
2019 Spankem - 6 (L)
2020 King Of Swing - 3 (L)
2021 King Of Swing - 5 (L)

I have always thought that the horses that settle 7 and 8 have no chance and this confirms it.
Why not have a field of 6?
Spankem is the only horse to win from wider than 5 and he did it by leading
History (albeit short) is suggesting Bondi and Eclipse have no chance
...........

a) which is why Ego gets in after his performance from wide draw

b) Field of 6 there isn’t as much need to get up close to the speed because the worse you will be is 2 lengths back and ready to pounce. This gives the leader an easier lead. Whereas with danger of being out the back you will see more early speed from out wide eg Balraj and Boncel last week. This early speed brings more horses into the race as the leader doesn’t have it on their own terms. I’m sure with horses like Mach Dan/Bondi Lockdown in a 6horse field with King drawn 1 they would be more inclined to go back but in an 8 horse field there may be some temptation to chance their arm – with the early speed battle tiring out King and bringing horses like Bundoran into the race.

Eg win likelihood with 6 horses might look like:
Leader: 50%
Death: 10%
Behind leader: 15%
1-1: 15%
2 Pegs: 5%
1-2: 5%

But win likelihood with 8horses might look like
Leader: 25%
Death: 10%
Behind leader: 15%
1-1: 15%
2pegs: 15%
1-2: 15%
3pegs: 3%
1-3: 2%

I think HRNSW probably have other reasons but that’s my logic for preferring 8 horses than 6. It evens out the winning chances.

[Messenger]

Good points Brendan although a) was not in a MM
Bondi definitely has to have a crack at the lead or the death
I am a little worried about how tired Aaron said he was after the Chariots and I think we would all totally excuse him if he did not come up on Saturday

ps 6/1x3 is 25% on the Menangle MM race history (3/12)

[Messenger]

King Of Swing 1
Spirit Of St Louis 2


Unreal

I cannot get over what unreal luck this is for the McCarthy stable.
The King simply drawing inside Bondi means Bondi cannot lead and now when he goes to the death (he has no other option) he will likely have Louis on his back waiting if he works the King too hard (unlikely as that is). There will be some keen competition for the King's back - which could even be Louis if Ego comes down for the death

I am interested in what the speed map experts think will happen

[aussiebreno]

I'd be surprised to Louis go the fence. Think 2 is fantastic for him just to balance up and come with a run at some stage.

[Messenger]

I have sent this to HRNSW, I hope I get a positive response

The NSWHRC commissioned Bob Cain to write Harnessing A Miracle and Another 10 Miracles to preserve the history of their greatest race. Come Saturday there will have been 21 more runnings and it is well overdue for you to commission someone to continue on Bob Cain's work in order to preserve HRNSW's history. You may decide to go digital rather than in book form in which case Bob's work should be digitalized too but don’t you think it needs to be done before the details of 2000 onwards are lost

[Messenger]

I am a little worried this year's MM could turn into a procession
I am not the only one, for when Josh Jenkins asked Gareth Hall how he would spend $100 on the MM, he said he would put it all on the Trifecta 1-2-3

https://www.thetrots.com.au/news/art...-in-harnessed/

[Messenger]

What is the word on the track
This is nearby Campbelltown's rainfall for the end of Feb

[Messenger]

And this is their rainfall for March up until 9am this morning
That is 270.2mm of rain in 15 days (that is 11½ inches in the old language)

[Messenger]

ps Melbourne's mean Rainfall for a year is 648mm
so they have had about 42% of Melbourne's Annual rainfall in just 15 days