Odds On Favourites under the VIC tiered system 2016-17

[aussiebreno]

Hi Brendan,


The data I provided was for Nov 2015 which would have included multiple runs for odds on horses, and similarly for the PBD data over twelve months for 2016-17. In short, there are less odds on favourites and those that are, get beaten more often. Most people on this forum and others, would be very happy with that outcome. Your suggestions that we should just let short-priced favourites win and not allow outsiders to win in order to retain them in a lower grade, is the opposite of what the industry wants and needs. Most people want an even playing field and a chance for their horse to win a race. We can't keep giving gifted horses a free kick.


Cheers, David

David,
I do want evenly matched races. Best way to get evenly matched races is having evenly matched fields. Instead of artificially keeping back classy horses in lower grades get them in their right class quicker and we will have more competitive races. Instead of gifting underclass horses wins who find upper class racing too tough and are uncompetitive allow them to race in their right grade longer and lengthen their career.
Its all good to say on any given day a PBD race creates less odds on faves. Thats correct. But its the flow on effect that hurts.Having horses who get a couple easy lead/sprint lane wins make it to C4 are done and dusted and lead to small fields in those events. While having the good one sit 3 wide the last lap get beat a length just means they will be back at shortish odds again next week. The PBD system just causes future headaches.

[David Martin]

David,
I do want evenly matched races. Best way to get evenly matched races is having evenly matched fields. Instead of artificially keeping back classy horses in lower grades get them in their right class quicker and we will have more competitive races. Instead of gifting underclass horses wins who find upper class racing too tough and are uncompetitive allow them to race in their right grade longer and lengthen their career.
Its all good to say on any given day a PBD race creates less odds on faves. Thats correct. But its the flow on effect that hurts.Having horses who get a couple easy lead/sprint lane wins make it to C4 are done and dusted and lead to small fields in those events. While having the good one sit 3 wide the last lap get beat a length just means they will be back at shortish odds again next week. The PBD system just causes future headaches.

Thanks Brendan, I understand your view. It seems we're in agreement about the need to separate horses into their right races, but may have different views on how that is best achieved. I suspect we will agree that we shouldn't have elite 2YOs coming back in as 3YOs to have easy wins in C0 races. That's one of the most common complaints that I hear. If races were conditioned so that those elite horses were required to run against like horses, then that would resolve your concern (i.e. get them to their correct grade quickly). Even better would be a progression of the national handicapping system which would resolve this and other issues with the current system. Cheers, David

[arlington]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YgGvd1UPZ88

Autumn, could be time to reseed http://www.harnessracingforum.com/sh...e-Barrier-Draw

[gutwagon]

Personally I think sprint lanes are causing many of the issues with bad barrier draws not being a handicap anymore. Regardless of where the best horse draws it just moves to the death and then the leader just gives up the lead because they know they will get a chance to go up the sprint lane. Without the sprint lane they would risk being stuck there and not even running a place, thus they would be more likely to keep the lead and make the better horse work harder making the better horse use different tactics.
Sprint lanes were introduced to keep punters happy, they used to complain about being boxed in and not getting a chance. But they have lead to very boring racing with more favorites winning, especially in small fields like we have today. Before sprint lanes many more moves were made in races and the drivers needed to use tactics much more. Some tracks in America have identified this problem and are closing the sprint lanes. I think we should look at this here. Our sport has been going down hill since they were introduced, of course it's impossible to work out how much of this is due to sprint lanes.

[Messenger]

I agree Rick

[arlington]

I agree Rick

Just in time for at least one round of sprint lane-less Inter Dom heats?

[gutwagon]

I notice that Victorian authorities are using the success of the Gloucester Park Inter as a reason for running heats at different venues. Why not use this same reasoning to close the sprint lanes. Gloucester Park has no sprint lane and they closed the lane at the other venue for the heats. The racing was great during the whole series. As a result turnover was good and many favorites were beaten. Strange how they can ignore the obvious .

I get the feeling that they really don't like to admit that one of their ideas has not worked and just continue with it even if it is causing damage to the industry. Look how long it took them to shift our main meeting back to Saturday nights. Participants have been calling for this from the day they shifted them to Friday night.
Gallops and Greyhounds do not have sprint lanes and they are doing much better than our industry. They don't have any extra integrity issues due to this. It would cost almost nothing to close the sprint lanes.
How about we have a 6 month trial and see how turnover is effected.
It's good to try new ideas but once you realize they are not working you need to change back to the old trusted way.

[Messenger]

R10 Kilmore tonight a $7k C0 only a field of 6 !!!!
Did the 3yo's scare them off ????
The small field were ALL 3yo's

http://www.harness.org.au/racing/fie...ic#KIC17041804

Another one last night

http://www.harness.org.au/racing/fie...ic#BNC20041806

But I received an interesting email pointing out that this race with Higherthananeagle paying $1.04 and $1.01 fixed, $1.04 and $1.00 tote had the biggest Win and Place pools of the meet!

The poster wondered whether it could be because some preferred TAB customers (based on how much they punt) get different prices to the rest of us. Maybe 5% higher than us. So could that be the answer - they get a nice little 5% return on these races when the rest get nothing

https://www.tab.com.au/racing/2018-04-20/BENDIGO/M/H/4

ps Also heard that Lenny may have been going around last night but the noms fell over once he nominated

[Amlin]

Thanks Brendan, I understand your view. It seems we're in agreement about the need to separate horses into their right races, but may have different views on how that is best achieved. I suspect we will agree that we shouldn't have elite 2YOs coming back in as 3YOs to have easy wins in C0 races. That's one of the most common complaints that I hear. If races were conditioned so that those elite horses were required to run against like horses, then that would resolve your concern (i.e. get them to their correct grade quickly). Even better would be a progression of the national handicapping system which would resolve this and other issues with the current system. Cheers, David

We have a C0 in Warragul at June, 4YO and older, no more than 2 lifetime wins. Worth $10,000 plus every trainer with a starter gets one ticket into the draw to win a sulky. Specifically programmed to give the "battler" a go at good money. Given trainers hate running into good 3YOs in C0 events, surely this race will achieve maximum nominations.

[Messenger]

Another one last night

http://www.harness.org.au/racing/fie...ic#BNC20041806

But I received an interesting email pointing out that this race with Higherthananeagle paying $1.04 and $1.01 fixed, $1.04 and $1.00 tote had the biggest Win and Place pools of the meet!

The poster wondered whether it could be because some preferred TAB customers (based on how much they punt) get different prices to the rest of us. Maybe 5% higher than us. So could that be the answer - they get a nice little 5% return on these races when the rest get nothing

https://www.tab.com.au/racing/2018-04-20/BENDIGO/M/H/4

ps Also heard that Lenny may have been going around last night but the noms fell over once he nominated

Another $1.04 favourite race that had the days biggest turnover at Yarra Valley today

http://www.harness.org.au/racing/fie...ic#YGC26041807

https://www.tab.com.au/racing/2018-0...VALLEY/YVL/H/4

Are the pro's manipulating the system?