I find the 40% reduction figure large for a last minute bump (maybe even for if a meeting was scheduled on Sky2)
If that is the bump %, it suggests that 60% of our punters/turnover are casual observers.
I base this on the fact that owner/stable connections are going to back it regardless
Pro punters and others that have been following a particular horse are not going to be put off
Those on course are going to still bet
and therefore the 40% drop is loss of casuals
I then say this is suggesting the Casual observer percentage is in the order of 60% for:
Some casuals are not going to be lost as they have Sky2 or only have to look at the 'other screen' in the TAB when there is a bump (or phone app caters for this - I do not about this as I am not a phone person)
And at least 10% of the 60% turnover that still eventuates would have to be casuals who have already put their bet on before the last minute bump
I find 60% way too high for casuals and would think those groups I listed in the previous paragraph to be at least 60% of turnover not casuals
It would be interesting to have some research but for the above reasons I find it hard to believe a bump costs us 40%
It would not be hard to research you would just need somebody to asterisk every time a race is bumped
Somehow, I doubt anybody in the harness industry or even Sky is doing that and so the 40% is just an estimate
That is - if it is even the 'bump' figure.
Far easier to do the maths (even retrospectively) if it is the figure for meets scheduled for Sky2
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